Seoul Mayor-elect Oh Se-hoon of the People Power Party (PPP) succeeded in a "comeback drama" after a close contest, becoming the first five-term Seoul mayor in constitutional history. Despite numerous difficulties, including friction with the PPP leadership and the strength of the ruling party candidate driven by the "stability argument" of the Lee Jae-myung administration, he claimed victory in the biggest battleground of the June 3 local elections. After trailing candidate Jung throughout the ballot count, he succeeded in a reversal only after 7 a.m., producing a dramatic spectacle. The final result was a victory by a margin of 0.88 percentage points. Along with the election win, he is assessed to have solidified his standing as the opposition's next presidential contender in one stroke.
◇Wins Just 10 of 25 Districts, Yet Stages Grand Reversal on 'Incumbent Premium'
According to the ballot count results from the National Election Commission on the 4th, as of 11 a.m. that day when 98.86% of the votes had been counted, Mayor-elect Oh won in 10 of Seoul's 25 autonomous districts. These included the four Gangnam districts (Gangnam, Seocho, Songpa and Gangdong) with strong conservative support, as well as Jongno, Jung, Yongsan, Gwangjin, Yangcheon, Yeongdeungpo and Dongjak districts. In terms of the number of districts won, he trailed Democratic Party candidate Jung Won-oh by 15 to 10, but minimized the widening of the gap by not falling far behind in most districts. Meanwhile, he secured tangible gains by overwhelming candidate Jung in the four Gangnam districts, home to 23% of Seoul's entire population. Mayor-elect Oh won 65.98% in Gangnam-gu, 64.68% in Seocho-gu, 53.51% in Songpa-gu and 50.65% in Gangdong-gu.
Seoul, classified as the biggest battleground of this local election, unfolded as a fierce close contest throughout the campaign period. Both parties classified Seoul as the largest battleground and could not be certain of the outcome until the end. In the early stage of the election, candidate Jung led Mayor-elect Oh by a large margin beyond the margin of error, but from the middle of the election, the gap between the two candidates gradually narrowed, continuing as a tight contest within the margin of error. Mayor-elect Oh was also cited as facing a setback as responsibility claims arose over the rebar omission problem at Samseong Station on the Great Train eXpress (GTX)-A line and the Seosomun overpass collapse accident. Although his rival candidate Jung and the Democratic Party expanded their offensive against Mayor-elect Oh using safety issues as a hook, interpretations emerged that this instead led Seoul citizens to cast their votes for the incumbent mayor's stable ability to run city government in a crisis situation.
◇Nearing 5 Wins in 5 Tries, Signature Pledge 'Sinto Plan 2.0'
With this victory, Mayor-elect Oh achieved the unprecedented record of "five wins in five tries," never having lost a Seoul mayoral election. Mayor-elect Oh was first elected Seoul mayor in 2006 and succeeded in re-election, but in 2011 he held a referendum staking his mayoral post in protest against the "free school meals referendum." After failing to meet the voting quorum, the referendum itself was scrapped and he voluntarily resigned, suffering a political blow by ceding the Seoul mayoralty to the Democratic Party.
After continuing a decade of life out of office, Mayor-elect Oh successfully returned to the Seoul mayoralty through a by-election in 2021. Not stopping there, he won the 2022 local election and then the 2026 election, firmly cementing his standing as "the politician representing Seoul."
With Mayor-elect Oh's continuation in office, "Oh Se-hoon-style" policies are expected to be pushed forward with momentum in this term as well. The core can be summarized as expanding housing supply, accelerating redevelopment projects and expanding transportation infrastructure. His signature pledge is the "Rapid Integrated Planning (Sinto Plan) 2.0." It is a pledge that supplements the existing Sinto Plan, a policy promoting reconstruction and redevelopment, and serves as a blueprint to further accelerate private-led housing supply. Through this, Mayor-elect Oh set a goal of starting construction on a total of 310,000 housing units within his term.
"Rapid Construction Start in Key Strategic Redevelopment Zones" to boost the pace of redevelopment projects is also one of his major pledges. The plan is to designate project sites at the relocation and construction-start stages as key strategic redevelopment zones and push to start construction on 85,000 units within three years. Simplification of redevelopment project permit procedures will also be carried out in parallel. Through the introduction of the "Redevelopment Project Hi-Pass," which integrates project implementation approval and management disposition plan approval, he promised to shorten the project period that previously took about 20 years to around 10 years.
In the transportation sector, he pledged to invest a total of 9.2 trillion won to push for the early completion of seven urban rail lines and to create an era of "a subway station 10 minutes from my home." Of the seven lines, construction is under way on the Ui-Sinseol extension line and the Dongbuk line, with target openings of 2027 and 2032 respectively.
However, as the PPP failed to meet expectations in the district mayor and city council elections, concerns are also raised that the momentum for running city government could weaken. In the district mayor elections in the Seoul region in this local election, the PPP secured only 8 of 25 districts, showing a disadvantage. The 17 PPP-affiliated district mayors were cut in half. In the city council election as well, the Democratic Party is expected to take more than two-thirds of the seats, forming a council with a minority ruling party. Concerns emerge that with insufficient allies among district mayors and the city council, constraints could arise in the decision-making process surrounding major city government policies. For Mayor-elect Oh to achieve his core pledge projects, cooperation with the Democratic Party is inevitable.
◇Becomes Hope of Collapsed Conservatives, Rebuilds Standing as Presidential Contender
In political circles, assessments emerge that Mayor-elect Oh has risen to a heavyweight presidential contender in one stroke through this victory. Although he had consistently been mentioned as a potential presidential candidate for the conservative camp since his first election in 2006, analysis holds that by reaching the five-term milestone this time he has more firmly solidified his standing among the next generation of contenders. Observations are raised that Mayor-elect Oh's election will also expand the political influence of close associates, including former Seoul Vice Mayor Kim Byung-min.
Mayor-elect Oh deliberately kept his distance during the election period from party leader Jang Dong-hyuk, who is supported by the hardline conservative camp. During the official campaign period, he never once stood in the same place as leader Jang. During the candidate primary process, he directly clashed with leader Jang, demanding a shift in his line. In this process, checks such as a "candidate replacement argument" also occurred, but interpretations hold that as a result he succeeded in securing moderate support by keeping his distance from the hardline conservative leadership. This is why Mayor-elect Oh's role has become important in the conservative camp, which must undertake full-scale rebuilding work. However, the fact that his political base within the party is not solid, as he spent most of his political career in the Seoul city government rather than in Yeouido, remains a task to be resolved.
In contrast, candidate Jung, who challenged a direct leap to the Seoul mayoralty from a district mayor background, is expected to inevitably suffer a political blow from this defeat. His standing within the party and future political path are also expected to be considerably affected. As he failed to carry through to the end despite an early advantageous atmosphere, assessments emerge that responsibility claims will be raised against candidate Jung personally.
