North Korean leader Kim Jong-un inspected a new nuclear material production plant and stressed that he would "exponentially strengthen the state's nuclear force." He also highlighted that North Korea's nuclear material production capacity had recently "reached twice the previous level."
By publicizing the expansion of its nuclear facilities and its increased nuclear material production capacity at home and abroad, North Korea appears to be seeking to cement its status as a nuclear-armed state. Experts believe the newly disclosed nuclear material production plant is likely a newly built facility within the Yongbyon nuclear complex.
The Korean Central News Agency reported on the 4th that Kim inspected the day before a newly operational nuclear material production plant, accompanied by senior officials of the Workers' Party Central Committee's Nuclear Weapons Institute. Kim stressed, "At the 9th Party Congress, we made the strategic decision to expand nuclear material production capacity and increase nuclear weapons," adding, "As the urgency and responsibility to continuously expand the nuclear war deterrent grow, we must thoroughly exercise our status as a nuclear-armed state."
Kim also vowed to increase the number of nuclear weapons "exponentially" based on the recently and dramatically expanded nuclear material production capacity. Kim boasted, "Through the process of strengthening the nuclear force over the past five years under the guidance of the 8th Party Central Committee, the nuclear material production capacity has reached a level exceeding twice the previous level." In addition, at a meeting on strengthening the nuclear force held alongside the on-site guidance the same day, he stated that he had "finalized the sequence and the guarantee (basis) for implementing the plan to exponentially strengthen the state's nuclear force."
Kim's moves are interpreted as North Korea externally revealing its resolve to solidify its status as a nuclear-armed state. The issue of processing Iran's highly enriched uranium recently emerged as a key point of contention during the ceasefire negotiations between the United States and Iran. In this context, North Korea has made it clear that denuclearization is no longer subject to negotiation by instead showcasing its nuclear weapons production capacity. This is also in line with North Korea's dismissal last month — declaring "there will never be denuclearization" — after the Quad, the security consultative body of the four nations of the United States, Japan, Australia and India, emphasized its commitment to North Korea's denuclearization.
Yang Moo-jin, chair professor at the University of North Korean Studies, analyzed, "Amid the practical frustration of Iran's nuclear weapons development, North Korea appears to intend to make clear that it is effectively a nuclear-armed state." Hong Min, senior research fellow at the Korea Institute for National Unification, explained, "The intent is to shift the perspective from denuclearization toward arms control and threat reduction through the strategic card of a 'nuclear material increased-production and mass-production system,' without directly provoking the United States as a weapons test would."
There is also an interpretation that this message is not unrelated to the visit to North Korea by Chinese President Xi Jinping, expected this month or next. Lim Eul-chul, professor at the Institute for Far Eastern Studies at Kyungnam University, said, "If President Xi visits North Korea, he may, in consideration of U.S.-China relations, recommend that North Korea 'refrain from further provocations' or 'resume dialogue.'" He added, "Kim sought to nail down the message just before Xi's visit that 'the nuclear issue is not an area China can control or compromise on, and it is an irreversible stage.'"
Meanwhile, KCNA did not disclose the location or specific production capacity of the new nuclear material facility Kim inspected. Three locations have been known as sites of North Korea's existing uranium enrichment facilities: Yongbyon in North Pyongan Province, Kangson in Nampo, and Kusong in North Pyongan Province. While there is a possibility the new nuclear facility is located in Kusong or at a fourth site, experts generally consider it highly likely to be a newly built uranium enrichment facility within Yongbyon.
Professor Yang said, "In June last year, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported that a facility presumed to be a new uranium enrichment facility was being built within the Yongbyon complex," adding, "Professor Jeffrey Lewis of the Middlebury Institute in the United States analyzed that this facility is located about 2 kilometers from the existing Yongbyon facility and that its structure is very similar to Kangson, so the facility Kim guided on-site could be this one."
Senior research fellow Hong also said, "The facility disclosed this time is most likely a newly built enrichment building within the Yongbyon complex that replicates Kangson." He expressed concern that "if 'multiple enrichment bases' — the existing and newly built facilities at Yongbyon and the facilities at Kangson and Kusong — operate simultaneously, North Korea's capacity to mass-produce nuclear warheads will exceed previous estimates."
