The ruling and opposition parties on Tuesday both classified six to eight regions as battlegrounds in the 9th local elections. While early in the race, analysts had forecast that the Democratic Party would sweep 15 of the 16 metropolitan mayoral and gubernatorial seats with the exception of North Gyeongsang Province, the number of toss-up regions has grown amid a last-minute rally by conservative voters.
Cho Seung-rae, head of the Democratic Party's general election campaign committee, said at a press briefing the previous day, "Looking at the metropolitan mayoral and gubernatorial races, the analysis that six regions are tightly contested still holds." He added, "However, I think Ulsan is moving in a somewhat stable direction due to the candidate unification effect." In a radio interview, he also said, "Seoul, Busan, Daegu, South Gyeongsang, Ulsan, and North Jeolla are tightly contested." The only region the Democratic Party has classified as a clear loss is the North Gyeongsang gubernatorial race.
The People Power Party views around eight regions, including South Chungcheong and Gangwon, as battlegrounds. The mood within the party suggests it expects to firmly hold Daegu and North Gyeongsang (TK) and could win up to five of the contested regions. A senior People Power Party official told reporters, "Seoul, Busan, South Chungcheong, South Gyeongsang, and Gangwon are extremely tight, and we also have a chance in Daejeon, North Chungcheong, and Ulsan."
In Gangwon, the Democratic Party considers itself the favorite, but the People Power Party's internal polling suggests the race has entered toss-up territory. In the Busan-Ulsan-Gyeongnam (PUG) region, except for the Ulsan mayoral race, which has shifted to a slight disadvantage for the opposition due to the unification of Democratic Party and Progressive Party candidates, the overall sentiment is that the races are winnable.
The side that achieves more in extremely tight races such as Seoul, Busan, and South Gyeongsang is likely to be considered the de facto winner. Both parties have classified the Seoul mayoral race as a must-win and have waged an all-out campaign. Democratic Party candidate Jung Won-oh, mobilizing the full strength of his party, and People Power Party candidate Oh Se-hoon, leveraging his incumbency advantage, continued their "high-ground battle" across all 25 of Seoul's autonomous districts until the day before.
The South Chungcheong gubernatorial race is also drawing attention. Democratic Party leader Jung and People Power Party leader Jang Dong-hyuk have viewed Chungcheong sentiment as a barometer for nationwide elections and devoted the most time to the region during this campaign. The Democratic Party believes its candidate Park Soo-hyun has gained the upper hand, while the People Power Party judges that its candidate Kim Tae-heum has entered "golden cross" territory. The Chungcheong region has symbolically served as a casting vote in every nationwide election.
The North Jeolla gubernatorial race, a traditional Democratic Party stronghold, is also drawing interest. Independent candidate Kim Kwan-young, who was expelled from the Democratic Party over allegations of distributing money, has performed strongly based on his solid local base, locking in an extremely close race with Democratic Party candidate Lee Won-taek. If a shift in public sentiment is confirmed in the region, criticism of the Jung Cheong-rae leadership could intensify, observers said.
