The Democratic Party of Korea's landslide victory in the June 3 local elections was driven by President Lee Jae-myung's national approval rating approaching 60%, analysts said.
Nationwide support for the president personally, which exceeded the ruling party's approval rating, overwhelmed the opposition's "check on power" message in an election widely seen as a midterm assessment of the administration's first year. By contrast, the People Power Party (PPP) is being criticized for handing the opposing side an opening, having exposed conflicts between Chairman Jang Dong-hyuk and the pro-Han Dong-hoon faction during the campaign while failing to sever ties with hard-line conservatives championing the "Yoon Again" cause.
As of 1 a.m. on the 4th, vote-counting results showed the Democratic Party headed for a sweeping victory, leading not only in the Seoul metropolitan area and its Honam stronghold but also in parts of the Yeongnam region, including Busan and Ulsan. The Democratic Party was ahead in 13 of the 16 metropolitan mayoral and gubernatorial races. Considering that then-candidate Lee Jae-myung trailed Kim Moon-soo across Gangwon and the entire Yeongnam region in last year's presidential election, the result is being interpreted as an expansion of the support base since the Lee administration took office.
The public's choice of governance stability over checking the ruling party is seen as backing the government's reform policies and economic achievements. In particular, capital market reform through measures including the revision of the Commercial Act is cited as a key factor that swayed centrist voters.
"The Lee Jae-myung administration has steadily pursued capital market reform legislation with the goal of achieving the campaign pledge of KOSPI 5000," a Democratic Party official said. "As the KOSPI rose to the 8,000 level, centrist voters' confidence in government policies also grew."
Improving economic indicators also worked in the ruling party's favor. Cumulative exports through April this year reached a record high of $306.5 billion, up 40.9% from a year earlier, while first-quarter economic growth was 1.7%, the highest among major OECD economies.
The mobilization of voters in their 40s and 50s, the Democratic Party's core support base, also drove the landslide. According to a joint exit poll by the three broadcasters (KBS, MBC, SBS), in the Seoul mayoral race, Democratic Party candidate Jung Won-oh trailed in the 20s (35.8%) and 30s (35.7%) age groups but significantly outpaced PPP candidate Oh Se-hoon among voters in their 40s (53.2%) and 50s (60.7%), laying the foundation for victory.
Regional-led growth strategies, including the relocation of the Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries to Busan, also helped the Democratic Party broaden its appeal. The Democratic Party put forward its "Five Poles, Three Special Zones" strategy, pledging to expand local government authority and fiscal decentralization, and presented plans for a second round of public agency relocations. The party also emphasized completing the administrative capital through the relocation of the National Assembly's Sejong chamber and a presidential office in Sejong, drawing support from voters in the Chungcheong region, analysts said.
The PPP, meanwhile, fought the election without ever recovering from the approval-rating slump that followed the martial law incident. In particular, Chairman Jang is seen as having struggled to broaden centrist support after failing to give a clear answer to internal calls to "sever ties with Yoon" ahead of the local elections. During the Seoul mayoral race, distance from the Oh camp became apparent, fueling controversy over the chairman's leadership.
Internal strife over candidate nominations was another setback. Chairman Jang and the party's nomination committee excluded North Chungcheong Governor Kim Young-hwan and Rep. Joo Ho-young, among others, but subsequent court rulings overturned the nominations, sowing confusion.
"Under Chairman Jang's leadership, the controversy over severing ties with Yoon and the nomination disputes were repeated, costing us the momentum to steer the election in our favor," a PPP official said. "The party chairman's leadership ended up becoming a burden on the campaign instead."
The strategy of renominating most of the 11 incumbent metropolitan heads is also seen as having failed to project an image of renewal. Critics noted the contrast with the Democratic Party, which projected a message of change through sweeping personnel turnover.
With this local election victory, the Democratic Party has further strengthened its nationwide regional base ahead of the general election in two years. Figures who have entered local governments and councils are expected to serve as the core axis of regional organizations during the next general election campaign.
However, the late-stage rallying of conservative voters and partial defection of voters in their 20s and 30s are being interpreted as warning signs for the ruling bloc as well. The implication is that if the ruling side uses the local election victory as a launching pad for an aggressive legislative push, it could face a backlash in the general election.
"The Democratic Party has further strengthened its grip on national governance by securing local power on top of legislative and executive power," said Shin Yul, a professor at Myongji University. "But the late-stage rallying of conservatives, which shifted the dynamics in some regions including Daegu, is something the ruling bloc must keep in mind."
