South Korea's ruling and opposition parties are bracing for shifts in their leadership landscapes following the June 3 local and by-elections. The results are expected to determine whether Democratic Party (DP) leader Jung Chung-rae secures another term and shape the political fate of People Power Party (PPP) leader Jang Dong-hyuk.
According to political circles on Monday, the DP largely views the upcoming elections as a preliminary battle for the next party leadership race. Key battlegrounds expected to divide the pro-Jung faction and the non-mainstream group include Seoul, Busan, the North Jeolla gubernatorial race, and the Pyeongtaek-eul by-election in Gyeonggi Province.
If Jung performs well in Seoul and Busan and leads the party to victories in around 13 metropolitan mayoral and gubernatorial races, he will have successfully delivered the first nationwide election under the Lee Jae-myung administration. This would boost his chances of winning another term at the party convention scheduled for August. However, if the party wins only six to 10 races or loses in symbolically important regions such as Seoul, Busan, or North Jeolla, he could face calls to take responsibility.
The North Jeolla gubernatorial race, in particular, is being interpreted as effectively a vote of confidence in Jung. If candidate Kim Kwan-young, who is running as an independent after being expelled from the DP, performs strongly, the non-mainstream faction's offensive is expected to intensify.
"After the local elections, non-mainstream forces could rapidly rise around Prime Minister Kim Min-seok, whose resignation is anticipated," a senior DP lawmaker said. "Whether former party leader Song Young-gil, who is running in Incheon Yeonsu-gap, makes a political comeback, along with his 'remarks defending Kim Kwan-young' in the final stretch of the campaign, will also serve as new variables in the next leadership race."
Jang is similarly expected to stand at a crossroads between reaffirmation and resignation depending on the election outcome. He has faced pressure from inside and outside the party over his hardline rightward moves and controversy surrounding his trip to the United States just before the elections. However, with the campaign now in full swing and conservative supporters rallying together, calls for his resignation have receded.
Observers within and outside the party suggest that if the PPP wins only one to three metropolitan races, including its stronghold North Gyeongsang, dormant calls for accountability could reignite. Conversely, if the party defends the Yeongnam region, performs well in the Chungcheong area, and adds a victory in Seoul, Jang's leadership is likely to be sustained.
Whether former PPP leader Han Dong-hoon, who is running in the Busan Buk-gap by-election, wins his race is another variable. If Han, who was expelled under Jang's leadership, returns to the National Assembly, his readmission to the party could emerge as the biggest issue within the PPP. At the same time, Jang's political standing — having been at odds with Han — could be significantly weakened.
Given that Han has repeatedly expressed his intention to rejoin the party, fierce maneuvering between Jang and contenders for the next leadership over the issue is also possible.
