The Democratic Party of Korea is likely to win nine of the 14 parliamentary by-elections being held alongside the June 3 local elections, according to the party's own internal assessment that has been made public. However, since 13 of the 14 seats were vacated either because incumbent Democratic Party lawmakers ran for metropolitan mayoral races or lost their parliamentary seats, a reduction in the party's seat count appears inevitable depending on the election results.
Cho Seung-rae, secretary general of the Democratic Party, identified nine of the 14 districts as favorable to the party and five as competitive at a press briefing Wednesday. The nine favorable districts are: two in Incheon (Gyeyang-eul, Yeonsu-gap), two in Gyeonggi (Ansan-gap, Hanam-gap), two in North Jeolla (Gunsan-Gimje-Buan-gap, Gunsan-Gimje-Buan-eul), one in South Chungcheong (Asan-eul), one in Gwangju and South Jeolla (Gwangsan-eul), and one in Jeju (Seogwipo). The five tightly contested districts are Pyeongtaek-eul in Gyeonggi, Gongju-Buyeo-Cheongyang in South Chungcheong, Dalseong-gun in Daegu, Nam-gu in Ulsan, and Buk-gu-gap in Busan.
While the numbers favor the Democratic Party, the party must win 13 of the 14 districts just to break even. With the exception of Daegu's Dalseong-gun, all 13 seats were previously held by Democratic Party lawmakers. If the party loses all five competitive districts, its seat count will drop from the current 165 to 161.
Furthermore, if the Democratic Party loses Ulsan's Nam-gu, the former district of Ulsan mayoral candidate Kim Sang-wook, and Busan's Buk-gu-gap, the former district of Busan mayoral candidate Jeon Jae-soo, to the People Power Party, the party's influence in the Yeongnam region will inevitably weaken, likely losing momentum in its "eastward expansion" strategy in the region.
In particular, defeats in Pyeongtaek-eul and Busan's Buk-gu-gap are expected to raise accountability questions not only for the Democratic Party leadership but also for the presidential office.
In Pyeongtaek-eul, if Cho Kuk, leader of the Rebuilding Korea Party, defeats Democratic Party candidate Kim Yong-nam, it could become a variable in the future restructuring of the progressive camp, including the Democratic Party. A ruling bloc official explained, "If Chairman Cho wins, he will instantly emerge as a strong presidential contender and could demand a party-to-party merger between the Democratic Party and the Rebuilding Korea Party. Chairman Cho could rally pro-Moon forces to emerge as a strong counterweight to the pro-Lee faction, making his victory a key point in the ruling bloc's power game."
If the party loses Busan's Buk-gu-gap to independent candidate Han Dong-hoon, criticism over the forced fielding of Democratic Party candidate Ha Jung-woo could spread to the presidential office. If candidate Han enters the National Assembly, a realignment of the opposition camp is also expected to be triggered. Political commentator Park Sang-byung predicted, "If candidate Han wins, he will engage in a battle with the People Power Party leadership, including PPP leader Jang Dong-hyuk. There is also a possibility of launching a new party centered on candidate Han."
