Voter sentiment is cooling among progressives in the Pyeongtaek-B parliamentary by-election as the Democratic Party's Kim Yong-nam and the Rebuilding Korea Party's Cho Kuk continue to trade blows, with unification within the broader ruling bloc effectively off the table. Some observers say that if Yoo Eui-dong of the People Power Party and Hwang Kyo-ahn of the Freedom and Innovation Party pull off a dramatic last-minute alliance, the conservative opposition camp could come away with the seat.
According to political circles on Tuesday, the off-the-line clashes between Kim and Cho are being cited as a reason for the lackluster early voting turnout in Pyeongtaek-B. The argument is that the negative campaigning between the two candidates has worn down voters. Early voter turnout in Pyeongtaek-B stood at 18.39%, ranking near the bottom among the 14 by-election constituencies.
The clashes between the two candidates began after the Rebuilding Korea Party stepped up its attacks on Kim, who had been leading the race, over allegations that he ran a moneylending business under a borrowed name. In response, Democratic Party Secretary-General Cho Seung-rae fired the opening salvo at Kim's campaign office in Pyeongtaek on the 30th of last month, asking the Rebuilding Korea Party, "Why are they running this election wearing a Democratic Party mask?" Cho's camp shot back that "the candidate the Democratic Party put forward is a fake." After a campaign event at Pyeongtaek's Anjung Market on the same day, Cho ultimately declared, "Patching up the conflict with the Democratic Party is not going to be easy," adding that "unification is, in effect, already over."
Political observers worry that this kind of negative competition is spreading fatigue rather than rallying the base, raising the possibility that turnout on the main voting day will also be low. A considerable number of voters are weighing Kim against Cho until the last moment, and a perception that "a candidate from the broader ruling bloc will win anyway" is keeping many voters away from the polls.
Political commentator Park Sang-byung said, "In Pyeongtaek-B, there are quite a few voters who are torn between Kim Yong-nam and Cho Kuk until the very end," adding, "Some are showing a mindset of just giving up on voting altogether and watching the result unfold."
By contrast, the prospect of unification on the conservative side remains alive amid the split in the broader ruling bloc. In a radio interview the same day, Yoo said, "I will work until the last moment to achieve unification with candidate Hwang." Hwang has also been urging his supporters to turn out for the main vote rather than early voting, which is being read as a sign that he has not closed the door on unification. Political watchers expect that, given the nature of Hwang's support base, a dramatic unification deal struck by the 2nd, the day before the main vote, could fully consolidate the conservative vote. A People Power Party official said, "Based on published opinion polls, if unification with candidate Hwang is achieved, candidate Yoo can definitely win with more than 30% of the vote," explaining that "this is because both Kim and Yoo have been stuck in the 20% range in most polls."
