With the June 3 nationwide local elections just three days away, a series of variables that could shake last-minute voter sentiment are emerging. Negative attacks during televised debates, unexpected setbacks such as safety accidents, and the direction of "shy supporters" heading to the polls are cited as key points that will determine the election outcome.
According to political circles on Wednesday, candidate televised debates held in each region just before early voting could significantly influence undecided voters. Since undecided voters typically place greater weight on a candidate's qualifications and policy competence rather than party loyalty, the attitudes, responses, and verbal slips revealed during debates could affect their final choice.
In the Busan Buk-gu A by-election, considered the biggest battleground of this election, Democratic Party of Korea candidate Ha Jung-woo and independent candidate Han Dong-hoon have been posting edited debate footage on social networking services (SNS) following their TV debate, continuing their offensive against each other. The online battle for public opinion targeting undecided voters in the final stretch of the campaign is also growing more intense.
The direction of "shy supporters" is another major point of interest. The conservative camp, which has been on the defensive nationwide, is particularly pinning its hopes on a last-minute rally of "shy conservatives." With People Power Party candidates rapidly catching up to Democratic Party candidates, especially in the Yeongnam region, observers project that the conservative consolidation effect could prove larger in the actual vote. In the 2022 local elections and the 2024 general election, People Power Party candidates in some areas of Busan, Daegu, and North Gyeongsang Province posted vote shares that exceeded poll results.
Sudden variables in the final stretch of the campaign also remain. With safety issues including the recent Seosomun overpass collapse emerging as election issues, the controversy is spreading into questions of accountability for the government, the ruling party, and incumbent local government heads. The ruling and opposition parties are engaged in a blame game over the string of safety accidents, focusing on highlighting calls to pass judgment on the opposing camp.
The moves of current and former presidents are also cited as variables that could affect voter sentiment. Some in political circles analyze that President Lee Jae-myung's job approval rating, which has recently reached the high 60% range, is providing a so-called "halo effect" for Democratic Party candidates. On the other hand, counterarguments are raised that the president's active political moves could stimulate a sense of crisis among conservatives and prompt them to consolidate.
The People Power Party continued its offensive for a third consecutive day on Wednesday over the "ballot exposure controversy" that arose during President Lee's early voting, criticizing it as "open voting" and a "government-controlled election." The Democratic Party has countered by characterizing the criticism as a political offensive. With both ruling and opposition parties pouring all their efforts into final weekend campaigning, attention is focused on which side the last-minute variables will favor.
