The Democratic Party's election committee for Jung Won-oh, the party's candidate for Seoul mayor, said Saturday that Jung could defeat his rival, People Power Party candidate Oh Se-hoon, by a double-digit margin, three days ahead of the June 3 local elections.
Lee Hae-sik, head of the campaign committee, held a press briefing at the National Assembly on Saturday morning and said, "In earlier opinion polls, telephone interviews of likely voters show a double-digit lead." He added, "Among likely voters, 60% say they will definitely vote, and the results from this group will likely resemble the actual voting outcome."
Regarding the polling landscape, Lee said, "Telephone interview surveys show Jung maintaining a lead of 4 to 13 percentage points," adding, "ARS (automated response surveys) show a closer race."
He further analyzed, "Considering that telephone interview methods can capture sentiment among centrist voters, Oh's support among the centrist bloc is constrained, while Jung shows a clear advantage among centrists."
Lee said, "A high turnout means participation from centrist voters beyond each party's base, which makes the results more similar to telephone interview surveys," judging that Jung's lead would solidify as turnout rises.
He noted, "Unlike older voters, whose turnout shows little variation even when defeat is anticipated, voter participation among conservative voters in their 20s and 30s could drop." He added, "Even with a turnout of around 55%, which is not high, we project that Jung will win."
The campaign committee also gave a positive assessment of the previous day's (May 30) early voting turnout of 23.51%, the highest on record for a local election. Lee In-young, standing chairman of the campaign committee, said, "The fact that early voting turnout in Seoul reached 23.84%, up 2.64 percentage points, or about 3%, from the 2022 local elections, and that the turnout-boosting process is proceeding within our predicted range for victory," adding, "Given that no other anomalies have been detected, our lead is being firmly maintained."
On the high enthusiasm for early voting, Lee Hae-sik said, "It can be seen against the backdrop of high public interest in the Seoul mayoral election," adding, "We also assess that heightened concerns about safety and life, following recent incidents such as the GTX Samseong Station rebar omission case and the Seosomun-ga overpass collapse, are contributing factors."
He also said, "There has been a steady consolidation of conservative voters, but around the time of the GTX-A Samseong Station rebar omission case and the Seosomun-ga overpass collapse, the narrowing of the gap entered a plateau, and our candidate's numbers rebounded. We internally judge that these events had a considerable impact."
Regarding the final turnout, he projected, "Late 50s seems comfortably achievable, and reaching the 60% line is not impossible."
