With early voting underway for the June 3 local elections, political circles are divided over how to interpret turnout, the key variable that will decide the outcome. Some analysts argue that, as in past elections, a rise in turnout will favor the Democratic camp, while others contend it could reflect a last-minute rallying of the currently struggling conservative camp.
According to political circles on the 29th, past local elections have generally shown a clear formula of "higher turnout equals Democratic victory." The analysis holds that conservative-leaning voters tend to participate actively in any situation, while Democratic Party supporters and unaffiliated voters place importance on the justification and motivation for voting. This means that among voters who do not turn out, the share of progressive and unaffiliated voters has been relatively high.
Indeed, in the 3rd local elections in 2002, when turnout was lowest at 48.9%, the Millennium Democratic Party suffered a crushing defeat. By contrast, in the 2018 local elections, which recorded the highest turnout (60.2%) in the past 20 years, the Democratic Party won by a landslide amid the fallout from the impeachment of former President Park Geun-hye. In the 8th local elections in 2022, when turnout fell to 50.9%, the Democratic Party managed to win in only five regions, including the Honam area, Jeju, and Gyeonggi.
However, experts believe the meaning of turnout in this election may differ from the past. With the conservative camp currently at a disadvantage, there is a possibility that so-called "shy conservatives" will rally and drive up turnout. In addition, the fact that the political leanings of voters in their 20s and 30s—who previously led increases in turnout—have grown more conservative than before is cited as grounds that high turnout could instead work in favor of the conservative camp.
Shin Yul, a professor of political science and diplomacy at Myongji University, explained, "The claim that high turnout favors the Democratic camp dates back to when voters in their 20s and 30s held progressive leanings. Now, if participation by the younger generation increases, it could actually favor the People Power Party." A Democratic Party official also said, "Unlike in the past, the sentiment of younger voters has diversified, so it is hard to say that high turnout will necessarily favor the Democratic camp."
On the other hand, there are also interpretations that a rise in turnout still favors the Democratic camp. The analysis holds that voters in their 20s and 30s, who will determine turnout, have developed greater aversion to the conservative camp after experiencing the impeachment of former President Park Geun-hye and the December 3 emergency martial law incident in succession.
Lee Jong-hoon, a political commentator, said, "Today's younger generation experienced martial law and felt a sense of crisis that 'the country could suddenly become a dictatorship.' The very situation of former presidents reappearing on the campaign trail is seen as turning back the clock, and there is a possibility that they will feel another sense of crisis and head to the polls."
