North Korea's busy diplomatic activity is drawing attention over how it might affect inter-Korean relations. Analysts say North Korean leader Kim Jong-un is likely to attempt dialogue during U.S. President Donald Trump's term, but it remains difficult to gauge when inter-Korean talks will resume.
Singapore as a 'Messenger' on North Korea Issues
According to a Ministry of Foreign Affairs official on Wednesday, Foreign Minister Cho Hyun will hold a Korea-Singapore foreign ministers' meeting in Seoul on Friday with Singaporean Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan to discuss the North Korea issue.
It marks the first official visit to Korea by a Singaporean foreign minister in more than 20 years, since 2007. Since Balakrishnan is visiting Korea after stops in China and North Korea, he is expected to share details of his Pyongyang visit. Unification Minister Chung Dong-young is also reportedly coordinating a meeting with Balakrishnan.
Singapore has maintained a neutral stance and continued trade relations with North Korea. Singapore and North Korea established diplomatic relations in 1975, and a North Korean embassy operates in Singapore.
As such, Singapore has played a "messenger" role between North Korea and other countries in the past. During the active inter-Korean dialogue period of the 2000s and 2010s, it served as a public messenger and contributed significantly by facilitating private meetings as well. In October 2009, Yim Tae-hee, then chief of staff at the presidential office, secretly met with Kim Yang-gon, then head of North Korea's United Front Department, in Singapore to discuss holding an inter-Korean summit. The meeting was only revealed a month later through Japan's NHK. Singapore's mediation was at work then, too.
It is unclear what messages Singapore will receive and convey from China and North Korea, but attention is inevitably focused on the meetings as North Korea expands its diplomatic reach.
Furthermore, North Korea's relations with China had cooled for some time following the execution of Jang Song-thaek, former vice chairman of the National Defense Commission and a known pro-China figure, and due to North Korea's nuclear development. Recently, however, ties appear to be recovering. Signals include Kim Jong-un's attendance at China's Victory Day event in September last year, and the resumption of North Korea-China passenger trains and the Pyongyang-Beijing air route in March after six years. According to China's General Administration of Customs, North Korea-China trade in April reached $326 million, up about 47 percent year-on-year. It was also the largest monthly trade volume since November 2017.
North Korea Seeks Diplomatic Diversification, Possible Appearance at Multilateral Stage in July
With Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi visiting Pyongyang last month, there are forecasts that Chinese President Xi Jinping's visit to North Korea is imminent. If Xi visits, it would be his first trip in seven years since 2019. China's Foreign Ministry maintains that it has "no information to share," but North Korea-China dialogue is expected to continue in some form.
Behind such observations is the outlook that North Korea will pursue diplomatic diversification to "normalize" itself as a state. Through a constitutional amendment this year, North Korea changed the name of its constitution from the "Socialist Constitution" to the "Constitution of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea." It also deleted content related to the achievements of Kim Il-sung and Kim Jong-il from the constitution's preamble, along with aggressive expressions such as "revolutionary state." Kim Jong-un has continued efforts to break away from the military-first politics and revolutionary ideology of his predecessors and emerge as a normal state.
To become a normal state, North Korea needs to broaden its diplomatic options amid continuing international sanctions and, ultimately, achieve economic growth through such efforts. For this reason, North Korea's diplomatic moves are expected to accelerate. At the party congress in February and the Supreme People's Assembly in March, Kim Jong-un emphasized strengthening diplomatic activities to "defend national interests."
There is also a possibility that North Korea will participate in the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), to be held in Manila, the Philippines, in July. The ARF is the only regional multilateral security consultative body in which North Korea participates, and it has provided opportunities for North Korean and South Korean, U.S. and Japanese diplomatic chiefs to meet. However, North Korea's foreign minister did not attend from 2019 through last year.
Meanwhile, it remains uncertain how long it will take for North Korea's active diplomacy to lead to inter-Korean dialogue. North Korea has expressed willingness to engage in dialogue with the United States but maintains a hostile attitude toward the South. In his policy speech at the Supreme People's Assembly in March, Kim Jong-un declared, "We officially designate South Korea as the most hostile state and will mercilessly make South Korea pay the price for any actions that touch our republic."
