With the ban on publishing opinion polls for the June 3 local elections set to take effect in one day, several races have shifted into tight contests, leaving the electoral landscape clouded in uncertainty.
While the Democratic Party of Korea was widely expected to lead in most regions outside North Gyeongsang Province at the start of the campaign, recent polls suggest the People Power Party (PPP) has rapidly narrowed the gap as conservative voters rally behind their candidates. Political observers note that races in many regions—except Incheon, Gyeonggi, Sejong, Gwangju-South Jeolla, and Jeju—have been reshaped into contests within the margin of error.
According to the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission on the 27th, the publication of opinion poll results will be prohibited from the 28th until the close of voting. Polls released through Tuesday show that the Democratic Party's lead is also wavering in the Chungcheong and Gangwon regions.
In North Chungcheong Province, a phone interview survey conducted by KSTAT Research on behalf of KBS Cheongju Broadcasting Station from the 13th to the 15th, polling 5,520 residents (95% confidence level, ±1.3 percentage points), showed Democratic candidate Shin Yong-han at 37% and PPP candidate Kim Young-hwan at 25%, a significant gap. However, an automated response system (ARS) survey by Realmeter for Newspim, conducted from the 20th to the 21st with 804 North Chungcheong residents (95% confidence level, ±3.5 percentage points), showed Shin at 45.4% and Kim at 40.8%, narrowing the margin to within the statistical error range.
The trend is similar in South Chungcheong Province. A phone interview survey by Hankook Research for KBS Daejeon, conducted from the 26th to the 28th of last month with 800 respondents (95% confidence level, ±3.5 percentage points), showed Democratic candidate Park Soo-hyun at 44% and PPP candidate Kim Tae-heum at 23%. But an ARS survey by Realmeter for Newspim, conducted from the 18th to the 19th with 806 South Chungcheong residents (95% confidence level, ±3.5 percentage points), put Park at 43.5% and Kim at 43.9%, essentially forming a dead heat.
The Gangwon Province gubernatorial race is also turning into a tight contest. An ARS survey by Public Opinion Research Fairness for Pen&Mike, conducted from the 21st to the 22nd with 802 Gangwon residents (95% confidence level, ±3.5 percentage points), showed Democratic candidate Woo Sang-ho at 49.4% and PPP candidate Kim Jin-tae at 44.9%.
The Busan Buk-A National Assembly by-election is also in flux. In an ARS survey by Ace Research for the Busan Ilbo, conducted from the 23rd to the 24th with 502 adult residents of Buk-A (95% confidence level, ±3.1 percentage points), independent candidate Han Dong-hoon led with 38.2%, followed by Democratic candidate Ha Jung-woo at 34.0%—within the margin of error. PPP candidate Park Min-sik garnered 23.3%.
The PPP claimed momentum was shifting, citing the rallying of conservative voters. PPP leader Jang Dong-hyuk said at a press briefing the previous day, "The electoral landscape is changing," and argued, "Public anger demanding judgment on the arrogance and reckless rule of the Lee Jae-myung government is flaring up across the country."
The Democratic Party, however, cautioned against overinterpretation, saying it still holds the lead in many regions. At a press briefing the same day, Democratic Secretary General Cho Seung-rae classified Seoul, Busan, Daegu, Ulsan, South Gyeongsang, and North Jeolla as battleground regions, and assessed North Gyeongsang as a PPP stronghold. He said the Democratic Party's lead remains intact in the remaining regions, including Chungcheong and Gangwon.
"Our goal is to win as many of the six battleground regions as possible," Cho said. "For the regions other than North Gyeongsang, the general assessments are that the situation is stable."
The Democratic Party also raised questions about the reliability of some ARS polls. Democratic leader Jung Chung-rae, referring to the recent South Chungcheong poll results, argued, "That is not the case in the 'Flower' opinion poll," adding, "Polls with larger samples are relatively more accurate."
