With one day left until the May 28 ban on publishing opinion polls ahead of the June 3 local elections and parliamentary by-elections, the race in major battlegrounds across the country is shifting dramatically.
The Busan and Seoul mayoral races have tightened into contests within the margin of error, while in North Jeolla — a Democratic Party stronghold — independent candidate Kim Kwan-young has edged ahead within the margin of error, emerging as the biggest last-minute variable. With moderates and undeclared voters expanding in the wake of the impeachment, and so-called "shy" voters concealing their preferences, tensions are peaking heading into the polling blackout period.
The Busan mayoral race, the most pivotal contest of the local elections, remains a nail-biting toss-up. In a survey by Ace Research commissioned by the Busan Ilbo of 1,002 Busan residents on May 24–25 (mobile ARS, 95% confidence level, ±3.1 percentage points), Democratic Party candidate Jun Jae-soo led with 47.4% support, ahead of People Power Party candidate Park Heong-joon (41.5%) by a within-margin 5.9 percentage points.
Earlier, a Realmeter poll commissioned by Kookje Shinmun of 1,004 Busan residents on May 17–18 (ARS, 95% confidence level, ±3.1 percentage points) also showed a tight race within the margin, with Jun at 46.0% and Park at 40.4%.
North Jeolla, a traditional Democratic stronghold, is unexpectedly in flux. In a poll by the Korea Society Opinion Institute (KSOI) commissioned by CBS, surveying 1,015 adults in North Jeolla on May 23–24 (mobile ARS, 95% confidence level, ±3.1 percentage points), Kim Kwan-young — running as an independent after being expelled from the party — recorded 44.1%, leading Democratic candidate Lee Won-taek (40.0%) by 4.1 percentage points within the margin of error. Facing the prospect of losing the party's heartland, Democratic Party leader Jung Chung-rae took to the ground there, declaring "an independent candidate cannot win," and launched an all-out offensive.
The Seoul mayoral race is also solidifying into a tight contest. In a Hankook Research poll commissioned by KBS of 800 Seoul residents aged 18 and over from May 21–25 (telephone interview, 95% confidence level, ±3.1 percentage points), Democratic candidate Jung Won-oh stood at 42% and PPP candidate Oh Se-hoon at 36%, within the margin of error. Analysts say the initial double-digit gap has narrowed and that the recent Seosomun overpass collapse has thrust safety to the fore as a decisive late-stage issue.
In the Ulsan mayoral race, a Hankook Research poll of 800 Ulsan residents aged 18 and over conducted May 21–23 (telephone interview, 95% confidence level, ±3.1 percentage points) showed Democratic candidate Kim Sang-wook (37%) and PPP candidate Kim Doo-gyeom (32%) in a tight contest within the margin of error. Discussions on a unified progressive candidate are seen as a key late variable.
In Daegu, a conservative stronghold, the mayoral race has tightened amid fallout from nomination disputes, prompting former President Park Geun-hye to step in to rally the conservative base. In traditional swing regions such as South Chungcheong and South Gyeongsang, candidates from both parties are locked in a final-stretch battle.
In the by-elections, Busan's Buk-gap and Gyeonggi's Pyeongtaek-eul stand out as marquee battlegrounds. In an Ace Research poll commissioned by the Busan Ilbo of 502 adults in the Buk-gap district on May 23–24 (ARS, 95% confidence level, ±3.1 percentage points), independent candidate Han Dong-hoon polled 38.2%, in a within-margin contest with Democratic candidate Ha Jung-woo (34.0%). PPP candidate Park Min-sik registered 23.3%.
The Pyeongtaek-eul district is an unpredictable three-way race. According to a Gallup Korea survey of 500 Pyeongtaek residents aged 18 and over conducted May 21–22 (telephone interview, 95% confidence level, ±3.1 percentage points), Democratic candidate Kim Yong-nam led with 30%, followed by Rebuilding Korea Party candidate Cho Kuk at 25% and PPP candidate Yoo Eui-dong at 23% — all three within the margin of error in a fierce battle for first place. The Hanam by-election in Gyeonggi is also drawing attention as a barometer of metropolitan sentiment, with the ruling and opposition candidates running within the margin of error.
Political observers note that, with the rise in moderate and undeclared voters following former President Yoon Suk-yeol's impeachment, along with the influence of so-called "shy conservatives" and "shy progressives," actual results may diverge from polling. The polling blackout period and early voting starting May 29 are expected to put the votes of late-deciding swing voters at the heart of the outcome.
For more detailed information on the polls, refer to the website of the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission.
