With two days left before the ban on publishing opinion polls for the June 3 local elections, regions that had been trending toward a Democratic Party victory are shifting into tight races within the margin of error, creating a "zero visibility" election landscape where outcomes cannot be predicted until ballots are counted.
Unlike the early stages of the race, when the Democratic Party was projected to win in 15 regions excluding North Gyeongsang Province, polling gaps have gradually narrowed. Some analysts now say a razor-thin two-party contest has emerged across all but five regions: Incheon, Gyeonggi, Sejong, South Jeolla and Gwangju, and Jeju.
According to the National Election Poll Deliberation Commission, the publication of opinion polls is prohibited from May 28 until voting closes on Election Day. Just one day remains for the public to gauge voter sentiment, but the election landscape is becoming more uncertain rather than clearer.
An analysis of opinion polls released through Tuesday showed that South Chungcheong, North Chungcheong and Gangwon, initially considered Democratic Party strongholds, have also shifted into competitive territory.
In North Chungcheong, a poll by Kstat Research commissioned by KBS Cheongju and conducted from May 13 to 15 among 5,520 provincial residents (telephone interview, 95 percent confidence level with a margin of error of ±1.3 percentage points) showed Democratic Party candidate Shin Yong-han at 37 percent and People Power Party candidate Kim Young-hwan at 25 percent, with Shin leading outside the margin of error. However, a Realmeter poll commissioned by Newspim from May 20 to 21 among 804 North Chungcheong residents (wireless ARS method, 95 percent confidence level with a margin of error of ±3.5 percentage points) showed Shin at 45.4 percent and Kim at 40.8 percent, narrowing the gap to within the margin of error.
The same trend is seen in South Chungcheong. Polls that had shown Democratic Party candidate Park Soo-hyun leading People Power Party candidate Kim Tae-heum have recently shifted into a virtual dead heat. A Hankook Research telephone interview survey commissioned by KBS Daejeon and conducted from April 26 to 28 among 800 respondents (95 percent confidence level with a margin of error of ±3.5 percentage points) had Park at 44 percent and Kim at 23 percent, a 21-percentage-point gap. But a Realmeter poll commissioned by Newspim from May 18 to 19 among 806 South Chungcheong residents on gubernatorial candidate support (ARS method, 95 percent confidence level with a margin of error of ±3.5 percentage points) showed Park at 43.5 percent and Kim at 43.9 percent, a razor-thin 0.4-percentage-point gap within the margin of error.
In the Gangwon gubernatorial race, what had been a one-sided lead for Democratic Party candidate Woo Sang-ho is giving way to a fierce charge from People Power Party candidate Kim Jin-tae. A poll by Yeoron Josa Gongjeong commissioned by Pen&Mike from May 21 to 22 among 802 Gangwon residents aged 18 and over (ARS method, 95 percent confidence level with a margin of error of ±3.5 percentage points) showed Woo at 49.4 percent and Kim at 44.9 percent, a tight race within the margin of error.
In the National Assembly by-election in Busan's Buk-gu A district, Democratic Party candidate Ha Jung-woo's lead is also collapsing. An Ace Research poll commissioned by Busan Ilbo from May 23 to 24 among 502 adult residents of Busan's Buk-gu A constituency (ARS method, 95 percent confidence level with a margin of error of ±3.1 percentage points) showed independent candidate Han Dong-hoon at 38.2 percent and Ha at 34.0 percent, a tight race within the margin of error. People Power Party candidate Park Min-sik followed at 23.3 percent.
As the conservative base consolidates, the People Power Party is gaining momentum. Party leader Jang Dong-hyuk declared, "The election tide is turning." At a press briefing Monday, Jang said, "A firm conviction that we cannot be deprived of our freedom is coming together as one." He added, "A determined will to protect our homes and our property is changing the tide of this election. Public anger that the arrogance and reckless drive of the Lee Jae-myung administration must be judged is burning across the country."
The Democratic Party, however, remained wary of overinterpretation, maintaining that it still leads in 10 regions. Cho Seung-rae, the Democratic Party's secretary-general, held a press briefing Monday and identified six regions as tight races: Seoul, Busan, Daegu, Ulsan, South Gyeongsang and North Jeolla. He cited North Gyeongsang as a People Power Party stronghold. That implies the party still leads in nine regions, including Chungcheong and Gangwon. "Our goal is to win as many of the six tight regions as possible," Cho said. "For the regions other than North Gyeongsang, the overall analyses are generally assessed as stable."
The Democratic Party has expressed doubts about the reliability of recent polls using the automated response system (ARS) method with smaller samples. Commenting on recent polls showing a tight race in South Chungcheong, Democratic Party leader Jung Chung-rae said, "It's not like that at Yeoron Josa 'Kkot.'" He added, "Polls with larger samples are relatively more accurate."
