The race for the Busan Buk-gap parliamentary by-election is being shaken by a sharp surge from independent candidate Han Dong-hoon. While Democratic Party candidate Ha Jung-woo held a clear lead in the early phase of the campaign, Han has recently mounted a fierce pursuit, transforming the contest into a statistical dead heat. Conservative candidate unification, widely viewed as the decisive variable in Buk-gap, appears to be heading into uncertainty as tensions escalate between the candidates.
According to political circles on Tuesday, in a support rating survey conducted by Gallup Korea on commission from Segye Ilbo on the 21st and 22nd, Ha registered 35% and Han 36%, putting them in a tight race within the margin of error (±4.4 percentage points). Support for People Power Party (PPP) candidate Park Min-sik came in at 19%, leading to assessments that the Buk-gap race has formed a "two-strong (Ha Jung-woo, Han Dong-hoon), one-middle (Park Min-sik)" structure.
Han's rise has been striking. In a Gallup Korea poll commissioned by News1 from the 12th to 13th of this month, surveying 508 adult men and women residing in Buk-gap, Ha had led Han 39% to 29%, a 10-percentage-point advantage outside the margin of error (±4.3 percentage points). Just nine days later, Han had flipped that into a 1-percentage-point lead within the margin of error. In a survey conducted on the 21st and 22nd by The Flower (Kkot), a polling firm operated by pro-government YouTuber Kim Eo-jun (an automated mobile virtual-number response survey of 500 adults residing in Buk-gap), Ha and Han were also locked in a close race within the margin of error (±4.4 percentage points), at 36.9% and 36.3% respectively. Han, who had trailed by 9.5 percentage points in a survey just a week earlier on the 14th and 15th, has rapidly closed the gap.
Conservative candidate unification is regarded as the biggest variable. In a hypothetical two-way matchup assuming conservative unification in the Gallup Korea–Segye Ilbo poll, Han led Ha 45% to 41%, a 4-percentage-point margin. By contrast, in a unification scenario centered on Park, Ha held a wide lead over Park at 48% to 36%.
However, unification talks within the conservative camp have stalled amid an intense standoff. At a press conference at his Buk-gu campaign office the previous day, Park signaled his determination to stay in the race, saying unification "is not a fair-and-square approach, and is nothing more than political-engineering calculation that ignores the right of Buk-gu residents to choose." Regarding several poll results that placed him in third, he argued that "the polling samples are politically contaminated."
He went on to claim that "a particular candidate's camp is using polls not to gather objective data, but as a tool to distort public opinion and exploit the election," adding that "there is a significant gap between Buk-gu's public sentiment and the polling results." He cited the example of his 2020 general election race against Democratic Party Busan mayoral candidate Jun Jae-soo, in which a pre-election poll had Jun at 58.1% and himself at 31.8%, a gap of more than 26 percentage points, while the actual election result was Jun 48.733% to his 46.795%, a difference of just 1.938 percentage points.
Han pushed back immediately, saying it was "going to extremes." Directing his comments at Park, Han said: "Didn't you broadly publicize the polls when the early results came out well? It is unfortunate that you make such remarks," and criticized him by adding, "Denying polls is tantamount to giving up on victory." He went on to stress: "Looking at recent polling trends, in a three-way race I am in first place and Park is a distant third. The only candidate who can beat the Democratic Party is Han Dong-hoon."
The Gallup Korea–Segye Ilbo poll was conducted via telephone interviews using mobile virtual numbers. The margin of error is ±4.4 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. The Gallup Korea–News1 poll was conducted via telephone interviewer interviews using randomly selected wireless virtual numbers. The margin of error is ±4.3 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For further details, refer to the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission website.
