Independent candidate Han Dong-hoon is mounting a steep surge to challenge Democratic Party candidate Ha Jung-woo in a tight race for the National Assembly by-election in Busan's Buk District A, which will be held alongside the June 3 local elections. While conservative unification stands as the biggest variable in Busan Buk-A, the race remains clouded as Han and People Power Party candidate Park Min-sik continue their tense standoff.
According to political circles on the 25th, a support rate survey conducted by Gallup Korea on the 21st and 22nd, commissioned by Segye Ilbo, showed Ha at 35% and Han at 36%, indicating a tight race within the margin of error (±4.4 percentage points). Those who said they support Park stood at 19%. With nine days remaining until the election, the Buk-A race is solidifying into a "two strong (Ha Jung-woo, Han Dong-hoon), one middle (Park Min-sik)" structure.
As the election campaign has shifted into full gear, Han's upward momentum is clear. In a Gallup Korea poll commissioned by News1 on the 12th and 13th of this month, surveying 508 adult men and women residing in Buk-A, Ha had led Han (29%) by 10 percentage points at 39%, a gap outside the margin of error (±4.3 percentage points). However, in a survey by the same polling agency conducted nine days later, Han edged ahead by a slim 1 percentage point, within the margin of error.
Other polls show a similar trend. According to a survey conducted on the 21st and 22nd by Yeoron Josa Ggot, a polling agency operated by pro-government YouTuber Kim Eo-jun (an automated response survey using mobile virtual numbers targeting 500 adults residing in Buk-A), Ha received 36.9% and Han 36.3%, locked in a fierce contest within the margin of error (±4.4 percentage points). In a poll by the same agency on the 14th and 15th of this month (an automated response survey using mobile virtual numbers targeting 502 adults residing in Buk-A), Han had trailed Ha (41.7%) by 9.5 percentage points at 32.2%, a gap outside the margin of error (±4.4 percentage points), but narrowed the race into a two-way contest within a week.
Conservative unification is cited as the biggest variable in this election. In fact, in the Gallup Korea–Segye Ilbo survey, a hypothetical two-way matchup assuming conservative candidate unification showed Han at 45% and Ha at 41%. Compared to the mere 1 percentage point gap between the two candidates in the three-way contest, unification would create a favorable trend for Han. On the other hand, if unification went to Park, Ha received 48% and Park 36%, with Ha holding an advantage outside the margin of error.
The Gallup Korea–Segye Ilbo survey was conducted via telephone interviews using mobile virtual numbers. The margin of error is ±4.4 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. The Gallup Korea–News1 survey was conducted through telephone interviewer interviews using randomly extracted wireless phone virtual numbers. The margin of error is ±4.3 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. For details, refer to the website of the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission.
