Jeon Jae-soo of the Democratic Party and Park Heong-jun of the People Power Party are locked in a tight race within the margin of error for Busan mayor in the June 3 local elections, according to a new poll. In the Busan Buk-A parliamentary by-election, independent candidate Han Dong-hoon is leading Ha Jung-woo of the Democratic Party and Park Min-sik of the People Power Party, also within the margin of error.
According to political sources Tuesday, a Busan mayoral support survey conducted by Ace Research on behalf of Busan Ilbo from April 23 to 24, polling 1,002 voters in the Busan region, showed Jeon at 47.4% and Park at 41.5%. The 5.9 percentage-point gap between the two candidates fell within the margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
In a hypothetical two-way matchup conducted by the same firm on April 3 and 4, the gap between Jeon and Park stood at 13.1 percentage points. Park has narrowed the gap by about 7.2 percentage points in roughly a month but has yet to overtake his rival.
In a separate Ace Research–Busan Ilbo survey of 502 voters in Busan Buk-A during the same period, Han garnered 38.2%, followed by Ha at 34.0% and Park Min-sik of the People Power Party at 23.3%. The 4.2 percentage-point gap between Han and Ha falls within the margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points, indicating a close contest. In a hypothetical matchup assuming a unified conservative candidate, Han recorded 41.7% and Ha 34.5%, widening the gap to 7.2 percentage points.
The survey was conducted using an automated response system (ARS) with wireless virtual numbers provided by the three major mobile carriers. For the Busan mayoral poll, the margin of error was plus or minus 3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level, with a response rate of 7.6%. For the Buk-A by-election poll, the margin of error was plus or minus 4.4 percentage points at a 95% confidence level, with a response rate of 10.9%. Further details are available on the website of the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission.
