Democratic Party candidate Ha Jung-woo and independent candidate Han Dong-hoon are locked in a razor-thin race separated by less than a percentage point in the National Assembly by-election for Busan's Buk-A district, which is unfolding as a fierce three-way contest, according to a new opinion poll.
Results from a Yeoronjosa Kkot survey released Tuesday — conducted on November 21-22 among 500 adults residing in Buk-A through a mobile virtual number ARS survey — showed Ha at 36.9%, Han at 36.3%, and People Power Party candidate Park Min-sik at 20.4%. The gap between front-runners Ha and Han stood at 0.6 percentage points, well within the margin of error of ±4.4 percentage points.
The gap between the two candidates has narrowed sharply as the official campaign period began. In the same agency's poll on November 14-15 (covering 402 adults residing in Buk-A via mobile virtual number ARS survey), Ha led with 41.7% against Han's 32.2%, a 9.5 percentage-point margin outside the error range. The race has tightened to near-parity within a week. Park's support edged down slightly from 21.1% over the same period.
The order between the two candidates flipped in a hypothetical two-way matchup. In a head-to-head contest with Ha, Han led with 42.7% against Ha's 38.6%, a slight edge within the margin of error. In contrast, in a hypothetical two-way matchup between Park and Ha, the candidates registered 30.1% and 42.2%, respectively, with Ha leading beyond the margin of error.
Party support in Busan's Buk-A also shifted significantly within a week. In the November 14-15 survey, the Democratic Party stood at 44.1% and the People Power Party at 33.3%. In the latest survey, however, the gap narrowed to 0.2 percentage points, with the Democratic Party at 37.9% and the People Power Party at 37.7%.
Meanwhile, in Busan's Buk-A, positive assessment of President Lee Jae-myung's handling of state affairs reached 55.9%, while negative assessment stood at 40.0%.
The response rate for this survey was 8.0%, with a margin of error of ±4.4 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. Further details can be found on the website of the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission.
