Unlike the Seoul mayoral race that is shaping up as a tight contest, the elections for the city's 25 district chiefs are largely tilting in favor of the Democratic Party of Korea. As the Democratic Party actively targets the so-called "Gangnam 4 Districts" — Gangnam, Seocho, Songpa, and Gangdong — results in this area and the Gangbuk Han River belt are emerging as key variables that will determine the overall race.
According to political circles on the 21st, the Democratic Party expects to win in around 20 districts in Seoul. While falling short of the 2018 local elections, when the party swept 24 autonomous districts except for Seocho-gu, the mood is that a comparable "Seoul wind" could be replicated. A second-term lawmaker representing a Seoul district said, "We assess that we are leading in most areas except for the Gangnam 4 Districts and Jung-gu and Yongsan-gu."
The People Power Party's outlook is not significantly different. The strategy is to defend as many seats as possible based on organizational strength led by incumbent district chiefs, but the party views the overall election atmosphere as not favorable.
In political circles, the assessment is that aside from the Gangnam 4 Districts, traditional conservative strongholds, the only area where the People Power Party effectively holds an advantage is Jung-gu. According to a public opinion poll conducted by Hangang Times through Win G Korea Consulting on the 11th and 12th, surveying 501 adults residing in Jung-gu (wireless ARS, margin of error ±4.4 percentage points), Democratic candidate Lee Dong-hyun garnered 37.5%, while People Power Party candidate Kim Gil-sung recorded 42.6%. The gap between the two candidates was within the margin of error.
Outside the Gangnam 4 Districts, the "Han River Belt," including Mapo, Yongsan, and Seongdong (collectively known as Ma-Yong-Seong), is cited as the most fiercely contested area. However, both ruling and opposition parties view that, based on the current landscape, Democratic candidates hold the lead in most areas except for Yongsan-gu. A political insider added, "There is a possibility that split-ticket voting sentiment could influence the Seoul mayoral race."
