Democratic Party candidates are leading mayoral races in Seoul, Busan and Daegu with 16 days remaining until the June 3 local elections, according to a poll released Sunday. The gap between ruling and opposition candidates narrowed in all three regions compared with the previous survey.
In Seoul, Democratic Party candidate Jung Won-oh garnered 43% support, while People Power Party candidate Oh Se-hoon received 35%, putting Jung ahead by 8 percentage points — outside the margin of error. The poll was conducted by Korea Research on behalf of MBC through mobile phone interviews with 800 men and women aged 18 or older residing in Seoul on May 16-17.
The gap was halved from the previous survey conducted on April 28-29, when Jung led with 48% against Oh's 32%, a 16-percentage-point margin. Among voters who said they would "definitely vote," Jung led with 50% against Oh's 37%, indicating solid support for Jung. When asked who was more likely to win, 51% chose Jung and 34% chose Oh.
A poll conducted during the same period using the same method on 800 men and women aged 18 or older in Busan showed Democratic Party candidate Jeon Jae-soo at 44% and People Power Party candidate Park Heong-jun at 38%. The 6-percentage-point gap is within the margin of error. In the previous survey on April 28-29, Jeon led with 48% against Park's 34%, a 14-percentage-point gap that was outside the margin of error. Ninety percent of respondents said they would continue to support their current candidate, while 9% said they "might change."
When asked which candidate would win regardless of their own preference, 46% chose Jeon and 38% chose Park. The factors Busan voters considered most important when choosing a mayor were resolving local issues at 21% and policies and pledges at 18%. Morality and party affiliation each came in at 15%.
The president's job approval rating stood at 60%, down 8 percentage points from the previous survey. Party support fell 3 percentage points for the Democratic Party and rose 2 percentage points for the People Power Party.
In Daegu, a survey of 800 men and women aged 18 or older conducted via mobile phone interviews on May 16-17 showed Democratic Party candidate Kim Bu-kyum at 43% and People Power Party candidate Choo Kyung-ho at 37%. The gap between the two candidates narrowed by 3 percentage points compared with the previous survey. When asked which candidate would win regardless of their preferred candidate, both received 41%, indicating a tight race.
The president's approval rating in Daegu fell sharply. Positive evaluations of his governance stood at 51% and negative evaluations at 41%, with positive ratings dropping 10 percentage points from the previous survey. Party support fell 2 percentage points for the Democratic Party and rose 1 percentage point for the People Power Party.
The response rates for this survey were 15.2% in Seoul, 18.3% in Busan and 15.5% in Daegu. The margin of error is ±3.5 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. Further details can be found on the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission's website.
