The poll publication ban for the June 3 nationwide local elections is just 10 days away. During the so-called "blackout" period, publication and citation of election-related opinion poll results are restricted. Candidates trailing in support are gearing up for an all-out push to narrow the gap with the front-runners before the ban takes effect.
For this reason, opinion polls released just before the ban begins are widely regarded as a "barometer" for gauging the election landscape. The last publicly disclosed polling trend can influence voters and produce a bandwagon effect, concentrating votes on candidates seen as more likely to win.
In particular, in this election's closely watched battlegrounds—including Seoul, Daegu, and Busan—the race could still be reshaped by various variables until the final stretch, including candidate unification, negative campaigning, and organizational mobilization. This is why political circles and observers alike are focused on the "final public opinion poll."
The Seoul Economic Daily compared and analyzed past local elections, looking at opinion polls conducted just before the publication ban and released on the day the ban began, alongside actual election results.
Leads Held, Tight Races Stayed Tight: An Analysis of Past Local Elections
In the Seoul mayoral race held on June 1, 2022, during the 8th nationwide local elections, People Power Party candidate Oh Se-hoon defeated Democratic Party candidate Song Young-gil by approximately 20 percentage points.
A review of three opinion polls released on May 26—six days before the vote and the start of the publication ban—showed Oh leading Song by more than 20 percentage points in two surveys. In the remaining poll, Oh held a lead of about 13 percentage points.
The actual election results were not far from the polling trends. Oh won 59.05% of the vote in the general election, defeating Song, who received 39.23%, by a wide margin. The "leading trend" formed just before the publication ban carried through to election day.
The same pattern held in the 7th nationwide local elections in 2018. At that time, Democratic Party Seoul mayoral candidate Park Won-soon led the second-place candidate by more than 30 percentage points across three polls released on the day the publication ban began.
In the actual vote, Park defeated runner-up candidate Kim Moon-soo by 29.45 percentage points. The gap with third-place candidate Ahn Cheol-soo reached 33.24 percentage points.
In the Gyeonggi gubernatorial race, Democratic Party candidate Lee Jae-myung led Liberty Korea Party candidate Nam Kyung-pil by around 20 percentage points in polls conducted just before the publication ban took effect, and won the actual election by a margin of 20.89 percentage points.
Elections that remained tight until the final stretch also produced extremely close vote counts. In the 2022 Gyeonggi gubernatorial race, candidates Kim Dong-yeon and Kim Eun-hye showed mixed results across six polls released on the day the publication ban began. In the three surveys where Kim Dong-yeon led, the gap narrowed to as little as 0.9 percentage points, while in the other three surveys where Kim Eun-hye led, the maximum gap was just 8.5 percentage points—indicating a tight race overall.
In the actual count, Kim Dong-yeon edged out Kim Eun-hye by just 0.15 percentage points to win. The close contest that persisted up to the publication ban carried through to the final vote.
Ruling and Opposition Parties Push to Boost Support Ahead of 'Blackout'
This local election is also seeing an intense final push centered on key battlegrounds. Given that the final trend formed just before the publication ban can carry through to actual election results, candidates are devoting all their efforts to consolidating their base and absorbing undecided voters before the blackout begins.
In the Busan Buk-gu A by-election, the biggest variable is whether independent candidate Han Dong-hoon and People Power Party candidate Park Min-sik will form a conservative unified candidacy. With both candidates so far signaling their intent to run to the end without unification, they face the task of absorbing as much of each other's support base as possible ahead of the general election contest with candidate Ha Jung-woo.
Han is focusing on absorbing not only existing People Power Party supporters but also independent voters, emphasizing a "citizen-centered campaign" and grassroots engagement. Park, on the other hand, is leveraging party leadership support and organizational strength to highlight his image as a "traditional conservative candidate," concentrating on rallying the conservative base.
In the Seoul mayoral race, the debate and real estate policy clashes between candidates Oh Se-hoon and Jeong Won-oh are intensifying. The People Power Party is criticizing Democratic Party candidates for "avoiding debates" and pressing the case for last-minute scrutiny.
In Daegu, the People Power Party is concentrating on rallying its base under the banner of "judging Lee Jae-myung." The Democratic Party, meanwhile, is pushing a message of change—"Let's try changing Daegu too this time"—to court moderate and young voters. With recent signs of declining People Power Party support even in the TK (Daegu-North Gyeongsang) region, both ruling and opposition parties are closely watching how public sentiment swings between conservative consolidation and demand for change in the final stretch.
Why Ban Poll Publication?: 'Concerns Over Last-Minute Vote Distortion'
Article 108 of the current Public Official Election Act (Prohibition on Publishing Poll Results, etc.) stipulates that "no person shall publish or cite in reporting the process and results of opinion polls (including those based on mock voting or popularity polls) regarding party support or anticipated winners related to an election, from six days before the election day until the close of polling on election day."
Accordingly, opinion polls related to the 9th nationwide local elections will be restricted from publication and citation in news reports from midnight on May 28 until the close of polling. However, results from polls conducted and published before the ban period may still be reported.
During last year's presidential election, the National Election Commission stated, "From May 28, six days before the June 3 polling day of the 21st presidential election, until 8 p.m. (close of polling) on election day, the process and results of opinion polls regarding party support or anticipated winners related to the election cannot be published or cited in reporting." It added, "Citing results published before the poll publication ban period, or publishing and reporting results while clearly indicating they were surveyed before the ban period, is permitted."
This regulation reflects the consideration that opinion polls released close to election day can influence voter judgment. In particular, if unfair or inaccurate polls spread, they could undermine the fairness of the election—and the difficulty of correcting such distortions is also reflected in the rule.
Meanwhile, the polls cited in this article are based on surveys registered with the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission. The 2022 Seoul mayoral surveys reference the results published on May 26 by Korea Research International, Metrix, and Joweon C&I, while the Gyeonggi gubernatorial surveys reference six polls published the same day, including KSOI, Hankook Research, and Gallup Korea.
For the 2018 7th nationwide local elections, the Seoul mayoral surveys reference results published on June 7 by Joweon C&I, Southern Post, and Realmeter. The Gyeonggi gubernatorial surveys reference results published the same day by Southern Post and Realmeter. For details, refer to the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission website.
