Democratic Party of Korea candidates are leading their People Power Party rivals in mayoral races for Seoul and Busan, according to opinion polls released Thursday, the day candidate registration closed for the June 3 local elections.
In a survey conducted by Hankook Research on behalf of KBS from May 11 to 14, Democratic Party candidate Jung Won-oh recorded 43% support in the Seoul mayoral race, compared with 32% for People Power Party candidate Oh Se-hoon. The 11 percentage point gap between the two candidates is outside the margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. The figures showed no change from the KBS survey published on April 30. Respondents who said they had no preferred candidate accounted for 13%, while "don't know/no response" came to 7%.
By region, only the Gangnam East zone, which includes the so-called "Gangnam 3 Districts," showed a tight race within the margin of error of plus or minus 7.4 percentage points, with Jung at 36% and Oh at 44%. In all other zones, Jung held the lead, polling at 46% in Gangbuk West (versus Oh's 25%), 46% in Gangbuk East (versus 30%), and 44% in Gangnam West (versus 31%).
In the Busan mayoral race, where both parties are mounting all-out campaigns to defend their turf, the Democratic Party candidate was also ahead. Democratic Party candidate Jeon Jae-soo polled at 42%, leading People Power Party candidate Park Heong-jun at 33% by 9 percentage points, outside the margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. As in Seoul, the two candidates' support levels showed little change from the KBS survey published in late April, moving within a narrow range.
Among voters who said they "will definitely vote," the gap widened, with Jeon at 50% and Park at 35%.
The survey was conducted by telephone interview using randomly extracted virtual numbers. It polled 800 eligible voters each in Seoul and Busan from May 11 to 14. The response rate was 13.6% in Seoul and 19.2% in Busan. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. Further details can be found on the website of the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission.
