The landscape of the June 3 local elections, now about 20 days away, is shifting. Until a month ago, candidates from the Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) held commanding leads in major metropolitan mayor and provincial governor races. Recently, however, candidates from the People Power Party (PPP) have closed the gap, reshaping the contests into tight races. In Seoul, the gap between ruling and opposition candidates has narrowed to single digits, while races in Busan, Daegu and South Gyeongsang Province have entered a dead heat within the margin of error.
According to a poll commissioned by News1 and conducted by Korea Gallup from May 9 to 12, DPK candidate Chung Won-oh led the Seoul mayoral race with 46%, followed by PPP candidate Oh Se-hoon at 38%. The 8 percentage-point gap was outside the margin of error (±3.5 percentage points), but narrower than the 15-point gap (Chung 52%, Oh 37%) recorded in a Segye Ilbo-Korea Gallup poll conducted on April 10-11.
The battleground region of Yeongnam is seeing extremely tight contests. In the Busan mayoral race, DPK candidate Jeon Jae-soo stood at 43% against PPP candidate Park Heong-jun at 41%. In Daegu, DPK candidate Kim Boo-kyum polled at 44%, with PPP candidate Choo Kyung-ho at 41%. In the South Gyeongsang gubernatorial race, which pits a former governor against the incumbent, DPK candidate Kim Kyoung-soo registered 45% against PPP candidate Park Wan-su at 38%. All these races fall within the margin of error, making outcomes difficult to predict.
The DPK faces an unexpected challenge in defending its stronghold of North Jeolla Province (Jeonbuk). Kim Kwan-young, former Jeonbuk governor who was expelled from the party over allegations of unpaid campaign driver fees and is running as an independent, leads DPK candidate Lee Won-taek by a margin outside the polling error. In a survey conducted by Zowon C&I on May 9-10 on behalf of News1's Jeonbuk bureau, Kim garnered 43.2% support compared with Lee's 39.7%.
Buoyed by this momentum, Kim unveiled his top campaign pledge Tuesday, centered on attracting 50 trillion won in investment and 15 major conglomerates to the province over four years. "I am confident I can expand Jeonbuk's share by working closely with the Lee Jae-myung administration," he said. Countering the same day, DPK leader Jung Chung-rai said at a press conference, "Having a Democratic Party candidate as Jeonbuk governor would drive the province's development far more efficiently and swiftly."
Political observers attribute the tightening races to the DPK-led push for a special counsel bill on alleged fabricated indictments, which they say has accelerated the consolidation of conservative voters. According to the News1 poll, 54% of Daegu respondents said pushing the bill was "not appropriate," more than double the 22% who supported it. In Busan, opposition ran 47% to 30%, and in South Gyeongsang, 48% to 29%. In Seoul, those calling the bill inappropriate (49%) also significantly outnumbered supporters (31%).
The survey was conducted via mobile phone interviews with approximately 800 adults aged 18 or older in each of Seoul, Busan, Daegu and South Gyeongsang Province. The margin of error is ±3.5 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. Detailed information is available on the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission website.
