The Democratic Party's rosy early-election forecast of sweeping up to 15 of 16 metropolitan mayoral and gubernatorial races is beginning to wobble. Analysts now say even victory in North Jeolla Province — a traditional party stronghold — is no longer guaranteed.
Han Byung-do, the Democratic Party's floor leader, held a press briefing in North Jeolla on the 11th and appealed for support of candidate Lee Won-taek, saying, "Development of North Jeolla is only possible if the candidate of the ruling Democratic Party is elected." According to a poll on preferences for North Jeolla governor conducted by Zogby C&I for News1's North Jeolla bureau and released that day, 43.2% of respondents said they supported independent preliminary candidate Kim Kwan-young. Lee garnered 39.7%. The 3.5-percentage-point gap between the two falls within the margin of error (±3.1 percentage points).
Kim, the incumbent North Jeolla governor, was expelled from the party after being caught providing cash to local voters during the primary process, and subsequently ran as an independent. Within the party, officials had expected Lee, who secured the nomination, to win comfortably, but the unexpected poll results have caused considerable alarm.
Polls showing ruling and opposition candidates locked in tight races within the margin of error are also emerging one after another, particularly in the Yeongnam region. In Daegu, Busan, Ulsan, and South Gyeongsang, at least one poll each has shown a margin-of-error race. The most closely watched Seoul mayoral election is also expected to come down to a single-digit nail-biter between the ruling and opposition candidates. As conservative voters rally, this pattern is growing more pronounced as election day approaches.
In a hypothetical Daegu mayoral matchup poll conducted by Yeoronjosa Kkot on the 5th and 6th, Democratic Party candidate Kim Boo-kyum drew 43.3%, running neck-and-neck with People Power Party candidate Choo Kyung-ho (43.7%). In the multi-candidate Ulsan mayoral race, a KBS and Ulsan Maeil Shinmun survey (commissioned to Public Opinion Fairness) conducted on the 4th and 5th showed Democratic Party candidate Kim Sang-wook at 32.9% and People Power Party candidate Kim Doo-gyeom at 37.1%. In the South Gyeongsang gubernatorial race, a Pressian and Innertech Systems poll showed Democratic Party candidate Kim Kyoung-soo at 43.6%, trailing People Power Party candidate Park Wan-soo (48.7%) within the margin of error.
Both inside and outside the ruling party, officials say that given the high expectations for this local election, losing even a few key races would inevitably trigger a backlash. A political insider predicted, "If the Democratic Party's wins among the 16 races end up in the single digits, Chairman Jung Chung-rae's path to a second term will also hit a snag." Detailed information on the polls cited in this article can be found on the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission website.
The News1–Zogby C&I poll was conducted on the 9th and 10th, surveying 1,000 adults residing in North Jeolla via ARS using mobile virtual numbers. The response rate was 14.8%, with a maximum margin of error of ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. The Yeoronjosa Kkot poll surveyed 1,006 adult Daegu residents via wireless ARS. The response rate was 7.4%, with a margin of error of ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. The KBS–Ulsan Maeil Shinmun poll surveyed 804 adult Ulsan residents via wired and wireless ARS, with a response rate of 6.1% and a margin of error of ±3.5 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. The Pressian–Innertech Systems poll was conducted from the 30th of last month through the 1st of this month, surveying 1,001 adult South Gyeongsang residents via wired and wireless ARS. The response rate was 5.1%, with a margin of error of ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For details, refer to the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission website.
