General Xavier Brunson, commander of the Combined Forces Command and U.S. Forces Korea, drew attention on April 22 (local time) when he said he had "submitted a roadmap to the Department of Defense to achieve the conditions for wartime operational control (OPCON) transfer by the second quarter of fiscal year 2029." It was the first time Brunson had mentioned a timeline for the OPCON transfer since taking office in December 2024.
Brunson made the remarks while appearing before the U.S. House Armed Services Committee, responding to a question from Chairman Mike Rogers, a Republican, about the status of OPCON transfer preparations. The U.S. federal government's fiscal year 2029 runs from October 1, 2028 to September 30, 2029. The second quarter of fiscal 2029 that Brunson referenced therefore falls between January and March 2029, corresponding to the first quarter of 2029 by Korean standards.
Brunson stressed that "political expediency should not outpace conditions," adding that the U.S. would "continue to pursue a conditions-based OPCON transfer and ensure that all conditions are met." Notably, his remarks suggest that a timetable has been prepared to transfer OPCON by the first quarter of 2029, provided conditions are fulfilled.
Some observers express concern that this could complicate the government's plan to target 2028 for the OPCON transfer — before the terms of President Lee Jae-myung and U.S. President Donald Trump end. According to the government's planned scenario, the target year of 2028 would be approved by the South Korean and U.S. defense ministers at the 58th Security Consultative Meeting (SCM) scheduled for October.
Brunson's remarks were reportedly not coordinated separately with Seoul, but officially submitted after being coordinated only with the U.S. Department of Defense. As a result, analysts expect that Seoul and Washington may reveal some differences over the target year for the OPCON transfer, leading to continued tug-of-war between the two countries over the actual transfer timing.
Above all, the first quarter of 2029 is the period when the term of President Trump, which ends January 20 of that year, overlaps with that of his successor. This is why analysts say the U.S. side may have prepared the roadmap taking into account the possibility that the point at which OPCON transfer conditions are met could be pushed into the next U.S. administration.
The so-called "Pershing Principle" — a U.S. military tradition of not handing over command authority to another country — is another variable. If OPCON is transferred to the South Korean military, it would mark the first case abroad in which U.S. forces come under the command of another country's military. This is the backdrop to the U.S. military's cautious stance on the OPCON transfer.
More concerning is the possibility that, although President Trump — who has emphasized expanding the role of allies — is reportedly positive about the OPCON transfer, the next U.S. administration after Trump's departure could shift its stance on the issue. In addition, 2029 is about a year before the 2030 South Korean presidential election, and once the election cycle begins, the OPCON transfer could become a subject of controversy — another burden on the current administration.
In fact, the OPCON transfer timing agreed by Seoul and Washington has been postponed twice as administrations changed in the past. Under the Roh Moo-hyun administration, the two countries agreed to transfer OPCON by April 2012, but the Lee Myung-bak administration delayed it to December 2015. Under the Park Geun-hye administration, the policy was readjusted to transfer OPCON when conditions are met, without setting a specific deadline — effectively leaving it indefinitely postponed.
This is why the Lee Jae-myung administration prefers 2028 over 2029 as the target year for the OPCON transfer. Fortunately, the timing of the OPCON transfer is an area that can be decided through the political judgment of the two countries' commanders in chief, separate from the position of U.S. Forces Korea. The SCM only presents a target date for meeting the conditions for transfer; the actual transfer depends on the final decision of the South Korean and U.S. presidents as commanders in chief.
In this situation, observers say the possibility of achieving the OPCON transfer in 2028 is high because of President Lee's strong commitment. At a recent Cabinet meeting, Lee again expressed his determination to complete the OPCON transfer by 2028 as pledged, saying, "Why do we keep feeling anxious, as if we cannot defend ourselves without foreign troops?"
"There seem to be some who are anxious about military and security matters, but setting aside U.S. Forces Korea, isn't South Korea's own military strength ranked fifth in the world?" Lee said. "We must prepare to defend ourselves and draw up our own strategic and operational plans. We must prepare so that our military can fully handle tactics and strategy on its own."
The assessment and verification for the OPCON transfer proceeds in three stages: Initial Operational Capability (IOC), Full Operational Capability (FOC), and Full Mission Capability (FMC). The FOC assessment at the second stage has been completed, and verification procedures are currently underway. Once these procedures are complete, Seoul and Washington will present a target year for the OPCON transfer and proceed with the final FMC assessment, at which point a more specific transfer timing will be finalized.
