Candidates are locked in a tight race within the margin of error in Busan's Buk-A district, considered the biggest battleground of the by-elections, one month ahead of the June 3 local elections.
According to a survey of 584 voters in Busan's Buk-A district conducted by Hangil Research on behalf of Busan MBC on Sunday, Democratic Party candidate Ha Jung-woo recorded 34.3%, while independent candidate Han Dong-hoon registered 33.5%. The gap between the two candidates was only 0.8 percentage points. People Power Party candidate Park Min-sik followed with 21.5%. Party support ratings across Busan also showed a tight race within the margin of error, with the Democratic Party at 39.1% and the People Power Party at 37.6%.
Political circles are watching how a recent incident will affect support ratings, in which Democratic Party leader Jung Chung-rae and candidate Ha pressured an elementary school student to call them "oppa" (older brother) during a campaign rally. Following Jung, Ha also apologized on the same day, saying, "I offer my apologies to the child and parents who may have been hurt." The People Power Party, however, has been intensifying its offensive, calling it "tantamount to child abuse."
Concerns have also been raised within the Democratic Party over leader Jung. Former Democratic Party leader Song Young-gil, mentioned as a potential contender for the next party leadership, said regarding Jung's Busan campaign stops, "It would be better to leave the Busan election to candidate Jeon Jae-soo." The remark is interpreted as suggesting that Jung should refrain from on-the-ground campaigning, as missteps such as the "oppa incident" during support rallies could trigger backlash. Song emphasized, "Candidate Jeon has a good reputation and a clear vision, so rather than making mistakes from the central leadership, it would be better to support him from above."
The survey was conducted from the 1st to the 3rd of this month in Buk-gu, and from the 1st to the 2nd across Busan as a whole. The margins of error were ±3.1 percentage points (1,000 respondents in Buk-gu), ±4.1 percentage points (584 respondents in Buk-A), and ±3.1 percentage points (1,013 respondents in Busan), respectively.
