North Korea has shifted its missile test launches this year beyond simple performance evaluation toward validating real combat operational capabilities, according to a new analysis. The combination of diversified warheads, including cluster munitions, with varied delivery platforms could pose a significant burden on South Korea-U.S. defense systems, the report assessed.
Cho Jang-won, a visiting research fellow at the Sejong Institute, offered this analysis in a recent report evaluating North Korea's missile development trends from January to April this year. Cho explained that Pyongyang has reflected weapons operation trends revealed during the United States' intervention against Iran, and that its tests carry an intent to demonstrate the ability to breach "the Korea-U.S. interception network" and concentrate devastating firepower on specific areas.
Since the start of this year, North Korea has continued military provocations including the launch of hypersonic missiles, super-large multiple rocket launchers, strategic cruise missiles fired from a destroyer, and tests of cluster warheads. Cho noted that North Korea disclosed that "in the cluster warhead (dispersion warhead) test conducted on April 8, the Hwasongpho-11A struck an area of 6.5 to 7 hectares (equivalent to 10 soccer fields)," and "in the cluster warhead test on April 19, five Hwasongpho-11Ra units equipped with cluster bombs and mine-dispersing munitions struck an island 136 km away over an area of 12.5 to 13 hectares." He interpreted this as revealing "North Korea's underlying intent to prioritize maximizing practical threats over international norms."
Cluster munitions (dispersion bombs), when used in actual combat, release hundreds of submunitions (bomblets) in mid-air, which strike a wide area simultaneously after falling to the ground, causing extensive damage. They are controversial weapons because they are likely to damage not only military infrastructure such as air base runways but also civilian facilities. Given their inhumane nature, most countries are reluctant even to disclose possession of cluster munitions.
Cho summarized the technical issues North Korea seeks to highlight this year as follows: ▲ the ability to fire hypersonic missiles mixed with existing short-range tactical missiles featuring irregular maneuvers (improving interception avoidance); ▲ mass launches of cluster warheads mounted on short-range tactical missiles and super-large multiple rocket launcher shells (enabling concentrated firepower on specific areas); ▲ warhead diversification including cluster and carbon fiber munitions (neutralizing South Korea's military infrastructure, command, and air defense systems); and ▲ the expansion of strategic cruise missile launch platforms from ground-based to sea-based (improving detection avoidance through platform diversification).
Technical limitations were also observed. Cho pointed out that in the case of hypersonic missiles, North Korea's announcement did not specify the success of the test launch. Hypersonic glide vehicle development is a highly challenging technology that requires precise guidance and control while the glide vehicle maneuvers at hypersonic speeds.
Other technical limitations identified include the fact that continuous firing capability for super-large multiple rocket launchers has not yet been secured, the cluster warhead is not a new warhead type while the carbon fiber munition is in early development, and the strategic cruise missile does not yet have a submarine-based launch platform. Cho added, "To improve the efficiency of responding to North Korea's missile threats, the development of low-cost, high-efficiency interception systems and, in the long term, the development of artificial intelligence (AI)-based real-time response systems to secure 'mass simultaneous response capability' appear to be essential."
Meanwhile, The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on the 1st (local time) that the Iran war presents China, Russia, and North Korea with a prime opportunity to assess the United States' warfighting capabilities and limitations in real time. According to the report, these countries are observing new U.S. weapons such as AI-assisted precision strikes through this war, while analyzing U.S. vulnerabilities and the pace at which missile stockpiles are being depleted. The WSJ assessed that for North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, the Iran war serves as a renewed reminder of the necessity of possessing nuclear weapons. Iran has maintained strong negotiating leverage against the U.S. through its possession of highly enriched uranium alone.
