Democratic Party Chairman Jung Chung-rae is heading to Busan and South Gyeongsang Province (PK) for a two-day campaign tour to support candidates in the June 3 local elections and parliamentary by-elections. With election day approaching, conservative voters in the region are showing signs of consolidation, and the Democratic Party is making an all-out effort to defend its lead.
Jung will visit Gupo Market in Busan's Buk-gu on the morning of the 3rd to tour the site and hear from residents. Ha Jung-woo, the Democratic Party's candidate in the local by-election, will accompany him on the market visit.
Jung will then attend the opening ceremony of the campaign office of Kim Kyoung-soo, the party's candidate for South Gyeongsang governor, in Changwon. After the ceremony, he plans to visit Jinju in the western part of South Gyeongsang — a stronghold of conservative support — in an attempt to target vulnerable areas.
Jung's PK outreach will continue on the 4th. He will hold an on-site Supreme Council meeting in Busan to introduce the party's support plans for the Busan-Ulsan-Gyeongnam (BUG) region. He will then hold a rally of all Democratic Party candidates from the BUG region at the same venue to demonstrate strength. In the afternoon, he will travel to Pohang in North Gyeongsang to host a candidates' rally, continuing his push into hostile territory.
Jung's visit to Busan comes about three weeks after his previous trip on May 15, but the mood within the party has shifted significantly in the interim. At the time, Jeon Jae-soo, the Democratic Party's candidate for Busan mayor, held a wide lead over People Power Party candidate Park Heong-jun, raising expectations of reclaiming the city. But recent polls showing a marked consolidation of conservative voters have heightened a sense of crisis.
In a Busan mayoral candidate suitability survey conducted by polling firm J2 Insight Lab on May 24-25 with 1,000 Busan voters, Jeon recorded 43.9% and Park 43.7%. The 0.2 percentage point gap between the two candidates falls within the margin of error, indicating a tight race. (Wired and wireless ARS phone survey, response rate 3.0%, margin of error ±3.1 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. Details available on the website of the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission.)
In a Hankook Research poll conducted on May 17-19 and commissioned by KBS Busan, Jeon also led with 40% to Park's 34%, within the margin of error. (Survey of 1,000 Busan residents aged 18 and older, mobile phone interview method, response rate 20.5%, margin of error ±3.1 percentage points at the 95% confidence level.)
However, in a poll conducted by Korea Research on May 28-29 for MBC, Jeon led Park by 14 percentage points — 48% to 34% — outside the margin of error. (Survey of 800 Busan residents aged 18 and older, telephone interview method, response rate 16.8%, margin of error ±3.5 percentage points at the 95% confidence level.)
Within the party, while results vary depending on polling methods and agencies, there is broad agreement that conservative voters will consolidate as the election approaches. In particular, since the momentum of the Busan mayoral race could spill over into South Gyeongsang and Ulsan, some argue the party must build a stronger winning momentum in Busan. "To win in the BUG region, the momentum that begins in Busan must extend to Ulsan and South Gyeongsang," a Democratic Party official said. "Busan needs more than a narrow victory — it needs to create a bigger wave for us to have a chance in other regions."
In fact, the Democratic Party's campaign outlook in Ulsan and South Gyeongsang is more contested than in Busan. In both regions, Democratic candidates — Kim Kyoung-soo for South Gyeongsang governor and Kim Sang-wook for Ulsan mayor — hold slight leads in polls, but their margins are narrower than in Busan. In Ulsan in particular, candidates from pan-ruling bloc forces such as the Progressive Party and the Rebuilding Korea Party are also running and have secured considerable support, fueling calls for a unified candidacy.
