Ha Jung-woo, former presidential secretary for AI future planning of the Democratic Party of Korea, is leading within the margin of error in the Busan Buk-A constituency ahead of the June 3 National Assembly by-election, a new poll showed. Ha was followed by former Minister of Patriots and Veterans Affairs Park Min-shik and independent candidate Han Dong-hoon, former leader of the People Power Party.
According to the survey conducted by Hankook Research on behalf of KBS from April 27-28, which polled 500 adults residing in Busan Buk-A, Ha garnered 30 percent, Park 25 percent, and Han 24 percent in a three-way race, the broadcaster said Thursday. The survey was conducted through telephone interviews using a 100 percent random sampling of mobile virtual numbers. The response rate was 23.3 percent, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points at a 95 percent confidence level. With gaps between the three candidates remaining within the margin of error, the race is a close contest with no clear front-runner.
Ha showed strength among voters in their 40s and 50s. He received 49 percent support from those aged 40-49 and 42 percent from those aged 50-59, leading the other two candidates. Among those aged 60-69, Ha also led narrowly with 33 percent, followed by Han at 31 percent and Park at 28 percent.
Han drew 25 percent support from voters aged 18-29, ahead of Park at 18 percent and Ha at 15 percent. Park was relatively strong among those in their 30s, recording 34 percent in that age group.
Among voters who said they would definitely vote, Ha led with 36 percent, followed by Han at 27 percent and Park at 26 percent.
By ideological orientation, Ha received 64 percent support from progressive voters, while Park garnered 46 percent among conservatives. Han drew between 16 and 30 percent across the ideological spectrum.
On the question of unifying conservative candidates, 39 percent supported the idea, 31 percent opposed it, and 29 percent gave no answer. Among People Power Party supporters, however, 64 percent favored unification, more than double the 28 percent who opposed it.
In the survey on local election sentiment, 42 percent backed the view that the government and ruling party should be checked, while 40 percent supported state affairs stability, a tight race within the margin of error. On the administration's performance, 59 percent said the government was doing well, while 31 percent said it was doing poorly.
As candidates begin campaigning in earnest, election fervor is rising in Busan's Buk-gu district. Ha posted a message titled "The son of Buk-gu has returned to Buk-gu" on Facebook on Thursday. "Yesterday afternoon (April 30), I completed a jeonse (a Korean lease system requiring a large lump-sum deposit instead of monthly rent) contract for an apartment in Mandeok (in the Busan Buk-A constituency) and finished the move-in registration at the community office," he wrote. "Now I have officially returned fully to the embrace of Busan's Buk-gu. I have returned to my hometown, where family and friends welcome me," he added. "I will work hard to ensure that my hometown Buk-gu becomes the heart of Busan, the future maritime AI capital, and deliver results."
Han wrote on Facebook, "On the morning of the first day of the holiday, I met citizens at Gupo Market. I went to the less-visited side of the spacious market to meet them." Han plans to register as a preliminary candidate with the election commission on May 4 and officially open his campaign office on May 7.
The People Power Party's nomination committee decided Thursday to hold a primary in Busan Buk-A between Park and Lee Young-pung, a former KBS reporter. During their interviews with the committee, both Park and Lee drew a line on the issue of unification, saying they would not merge candidacies with Han.
