Voter sentiment in Busan, Ulsan and South Gyeongsang Province (PK) is shifting ahead of the June 3 local elections. The Busan mayoral race has rapidly narrowed into a dead heat within the margin of error, while in South Gyeongsang — considered the most contested battleground — the ruling party is widening its lead over the opposition, signaling divergent trends across the region.
According to a poll conducted by Hankook Research and KBS Busan from the 17th to the 19th of this month and released on the 20th, Jeon Jae-soo of the Democratic Party drew 40% support in the Busan mayoral race, while Park Heong-jun of the People Power Party garnered 34%. The gap is within the margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. Jeong I-han of the Reform Party recorded 1%. This is the first time the two candidates have been locked within the margin of error since being confirmed through their respective party primaries.
Behind the sudden heating of the Busan race is a full-scale shift into campaign mode combined with simultaneous consolidation of both parties' support bases. Analysts say that as internal disputes, including nomination conflicts, have been partly resolved, supporters' attention and engagement have quickly risen.
Party support ratings have also climbed in tandem. In a survey conducted by Realmeter and Energy Economy Newspaper on the 16th and 17th, the Democratic Party's support rating in the PK region stood at 40%, up 6.3 percentage points from 33.7% the previous week. The People Power Party also rose 7.2 percentage points to 44.6% from 37.4%. With both the ruling and opposition parties gaining momentum in consolidating support in Busan, the race has entered a head-to-head showdown, observers say.
A key variable heating up the campaign is the Buk-gu A by-election in Busan. The vacancy created by Jeon's bid for Busan mayor has drawn former People Power Party leader Han Dong-hoon into the race, sharply boosting overall interest in the Busan elections. With his nationwide profile, Han has been delivering daily messages through social media, drawing voter attention, analysts say.
"What matters in Busan is that a 'Han Dong-hoon variable' has emerged," a People Power Party lawmaker from the Busan region said. "As his activities have been publicized through the internet and social media, voter interest has risen significantly." The lawmaker added, "It is hard to say that People Power Party supporters have completely parted ways with former leader Han. His emergence has brought about a degree of reconsolidation among them."
The possibility of an alliance between Park and Han is also being raised. After a press conference at the National Assembly on the 21st calling for the public hospital conversion of Busan Baptist Hospital, Park said in a briefing that regarding the possibility of an electoral alliance with Han, "I will explore it in a direction that helps win the election." While Park currently keeps some distance from Han, who is not affiliated with any party at present, observers predict the likelihood of an alliance will grow once candidate registration is completed and full-scale campaigning begins.
"Right now, before we fully enter the campaign phase, we have no choice but to draw a line, but after candidate registration, alliance discussions will inevitably gain momentum," a pro-Han lawmaker said. "Park is also likely to settle on joining forces with former leader Han in order to win."
South Gyeongsang, by contrast, is showing a different atmosphere. Earlier this month, some surveys showed the two parties' candidates locked within the margin of error, but the gap has recently widened. In a gubernatorial poll conducted by Hankook Research and KBS Changwon from the 14th to the 16th, Kim Kyoung-soo of the Democratic Party received 37%, Park Wan-su of the People Power Party 27%, and Jeon Hee-young of the Progressive Party 1%. Those with no preferred candidate accounted for 27%, with 8% giving no response.
Although the sizable share of undecided voters leaves room for shifts, observers inside and outside the region say the South Gyeongsang race is tilting somewhat in favor of the Democratic Party. Analysts note that a "backing the administration" dynamic is driving consolidation among Kim's supporters, while Park has struggled to fully embrace figures within his own party, making it harder to rally his base. Still, incumbency advantage and organizational strength remain variables that could sway the final outcome.
