Ahead of the June 3 local elections, public sentiment in Busan, Ulsan, and South Gyeongsang (PK region), considered the "biggest battleground," is swinging significantly. The Busan mayoral race has narrowed to a close contest within the margin of error, and with former People Power Party (PPP) leader Han Dong-hoon declaring his candidacy for the Busan Buk-gu A by-election, the electoral landscape is heating up rapidly. While supporter bases of both the ruling and opposition parties are rallying simultaneously, South Gyeongsang, which had been classified as the most contested region, is showing signs of the gap widening again recently.
According to a poll conducted by Hankook Research and KBS Busan from the 17th to 19th of this month and released on the 20th, support for Busan mayoral candidates stood at 40% for Democratic Party candidate Jeon Jae-soo and 34% for PPP candidate Park Heong-joon. The gap falls within the margin of error (±3.1 percentage points). Reform Party candidate Jeong Yi-han recorded 1%. This is the first time the two candidates have gone head-to-head within the margin of error since both parties finalized their nominees through primaries.
The intensifying Busan race is largely attributed to the simultaneous rallying of both parties' support bases as the full-fledged election phase begins. Analysts say that as internal party strife, including nomination disputes, has been resolved and the parties have shifted into local election mode, both supporter interest and participation have risen.
Party approval ratings have also risen in tandem. According to a survey conducted by Realmeter and Energy Economic Daily from the 16th to 17th of this month, the Democratic Party's approval rating in the PK region was 40%, up 6.3 percentage points from the previous week (33.7%). The PPP also rose from 37.4% to 44.6% during the same period, an increase of 7.2 percentage points.
The Buk-gu A by-election is cited as a key variable heating up the Busan electoral landscape. Analysts say that with Han declaring his candidacy in this district, which became vacant after Jeon's bid for Busan mayor, interest in the Busan election overall has grown. Having nationwide name recognition, Han has been making his presence felt daily through social media (SNS) since officially announcing his Buk-gu A candidacy, naturally drawing voters' attention.
A PPP lawmaker from the Busan region said, "What matters in Busan is that the 'Han Dong-hoon variable' has emerged," adding, "As his activities have become known through the internet and social media, voter interest has significantly increased." He continued, "It's difficult to say that the PPP supporter base has completely parted ways with former leader Han. With Han's emergence, there is an aspect of these supporters rallying once again."
In connection with this, the possibility of an alliance between candidate Park and former leader Han is also being discussed. After a press conference at the National Assembly on the 21st calling for Busan Baptist Hospital to be converted into a public hospital, Park said in a briefing regarding the possibility of an electoral alliance with Han, "I will explore directions that help win the election." Although he currently maintains a certain distance from Han, who has no party affiliation, observers say that once the candidate registration ends and the full-scale campaign begins, the likelihood of an alliance will grow.
A pro-Han lawmaker said, "Right now, before entering the full-scale election phase, we have no choice but to draw a line, but after candidate registration, discussions on an alliance will inevitably be in earnest," adding, "Candidate Park is also likely to settle on joining forces with former leader Han in order to win."
On the other hand, in South Gyeongsang, the gap between the two parties is widening again. Until early this month, some polls showed a close contest within the margin of error, but the difference has been expanding recently. In a survey of South Gyeongsang gubernatorial candidate support conducted by Hankook Research and KBS Changwon from the 14th to 16th, Democratic Party candidate Kim Kyoung-soo recorded 37%, PPP candidate Park Wan-soo 27%, and Progressive Party candidate Jeon Hee-young 1%. "No preferred candidate" was 27%, and no response was 8%.
Although variables remain with a considerable floating vote, analysts inside and outside the region say the South Gyeongsang electoral landscape is tilting somewhat in favor of the Democratic Party. Among Kim's supporters, there is a rallying trend in the nature of supporting the administration, while Park's camp faces continued criticism of weak centripetal force. The assessment is that Park is struggling to consolidate forces as he has not sufficiently embraced party insiders. However, the incumbent advantage is still considered a last-minute variable.
