South Korea's National Intelligence Service (NIS) reported to the National Assembly that there is a possibility of a "small deal" — a partial agreement — between the United States and Iran, and that the Middle East situation could enter a lull after the end of this month. The NIS also said North Korea has not been supplying weapons or materials to Iran since the Middle East war began.
Park Sun-won, a lawmaker from the main opposition Democratic Party of Korea, and Lee Sung-kwon, a lawmaker from the ruling People Power Party — both serving as chief secretaries of the National Assembly Intelligence Committee — briefed reporters after receiving the NIS's report at a full committee meeting held at the National Assembly on Sunday.
Regarding the Middle East conflict, the NIS reported that "after a small deal in which Iran opens the Strait of Hormuz and the United States unfreezes blocked funds, hostilities will cease and negotiations will follow." The agency added, "We judge that depending on the results of intensive U.S. airstrikes over the next three to four days and whether the U.S. conducts further strikes, the situation will shift into a lull by the end of this month."
The NIS said it is "cooperating with intelligence agencies of related countries" to ensure free passage of Korean vessels through the Strait of Hormuz.
The NIS also reported that North Korea has been distancing itself from Iran — a country with which it has traditionally maintained friendly ties — since the Middle East war. "North Korea has not provided weapons or materials to Iran to date," the NIS said, adding that Pyongyang "did not send a condolence message when Ayatollah Ali Khamenei died and did not send a congratulatory message when Mojtaba Khamenei, his second son, was elected as Iran's new supreme leader."
The NIS further noted that "while China and Russia frequently issue statements regarding U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran, North Korea has issued only two brief statements." The agency analyzed that "North Korea is seeking to secure new diplomatic space after the U.S.-China summit in May."
Meanwhile, a Ministry of Foreign Affairs official told reporters on Sunday that South Korea is "communicating through multiple channels" with Iran and other related countries regarding the safety of Korean ships stranded near the Strait of Hormuz. The official also said that at a UK-led meeting on April 2 attended by foreign ministers from about 40 countries to discuss strait passage, "there were discussions on coordinated responses regarding Iran's imposition of transit tolls and sanctions against Iran."