Daniel Kritenbrink, former U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, warned in an interview with the Seoul Economic Daily on Tuesday that "the most serious ripple effect of a U.S.-Iran war would be the distortion of Middle Eastern energy flows and the resulting shock to the global economy."
"Given the impact on the global economy, the war itself is likely to end within a few weeks, but the energy crisis could persist for at least a year afterward," Kritenbrink said.
"This energy crisis will intensify the longer the conflict drags on, the more widely it spreads, and the more additional damage is inflicted on energy infrastructure in the region," he said. "Korea should use this situation as an opportunity to fundamentally redesign its energy strategy."
The following is the full interview.
Q: When do you think the U.S.-Iran war will end?
A: I think it depends on several factors. It will be determined by a combination of how negotiations proceed and how much the president has achieved the military objectives he has stated. On top of that, there are several incentives for the president to end this war relatively quickly, including the disruption to energy markets and the resulting economic fallout. Personally, I believe this crisis is likely to be largely resolved within the next few weeks.
What matters is that the energy disruption caused by this conflict will continue even after fighting stops, and it could last anywhere from six months to a year. If the conflict drags on longer, spreads further, or more energy infrastructure in the region is destroyed, the effects could persist for a considerable period. We should also be cautious about thinking the president can simply flip a switch one day and end the war entirely. I think there is a possibility of continued low-intensity conflict or incidents.
Q: Should Korea reduce its dependence on the Middle East in its energy strategy going forward?
A: The most important keywords in the 21st-century economy are diversification and diversity. Whether it is energy, rare earths, semiconductor and advanced technology supply chains, or other manufacturing supply chains, relying entirely on one country or a single supply chain poses a significant risk — not just for Korea, but for any country or company. That said, I also want to note that the Middle East will remain at the center of the global energy market for the foreseeable future.
