"Even if the Middle East war ends today, the energy crisis will persist for at least six months to nearly a year. Korea must use this as an opportunity to redesign its energy strategy."
Daniel Kritenbrink, former U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, said in an interview with the Seoul Economic Daily on the 3rd that "the most serious repercussion of a U.S.-Iran war would be the distortion of Middle Eastern energy flows and the resulting shock to the global economy." He warned that "the war itself is likely to end within weeks, but the energy crisis could continue for at least close to a year afterward."
"This energy crisis will intensify the more additional damage is inflicted on regional energy infrastructure," he said, advising that "Korea must use this situation as a catalyst to fundamentally redesign its energy strategy."
Kritenbrink proposed an "all of the above" diversified energy strategy as the direction Korea should pursue. The idea is to keep all available energy sources and supply lines open while seeking optimal solutions. "The most important keyword in the 21st-century economy is 'diversification,'" he said. "Whether it is energy, rare earths, or semiconductor and advanced technology supply chains, excessive dependence on any single country or supply chain is extremely dangerous for any nation or company."
He stressed that "Korea must move beyond the binary choice of switching from fossil fuels to renewable energy and adopt a comprehensive strategy that keeps all possible energy source options open and diversifies." However, he added that "even after the war, the center of the global energy market will remain the Middle East for some time," noting that "under this premise, Korea needs to craft a long-term strategy encompassing other oil and gas producing countries such as North America and Australia, as well as renewable energy, nuclear power, and storage technology."
Regarding U.S. President Donald Trump's recent remark that Korea has "not been helpful" for not responding to calls for deployment to the Strait of Hormuz, Kritenbrink said, "It is true that Korea has significant interests in the region given its heavy dependence on energy transiting the Strait of Hormuz." However, he pointed out that "Korea must clearly recognize that direct involvement in the conflict is not feasible." He advised that "it would be more realistic to explore ways to contribute to restoring regional stability and normalizing energy flows after the conflict ends."
On concerns that security is being used as a bargaining chip to resolve trade issues in the U.S.-Korea relationship, he said, "The Trump second-term administration has taken a far more transactional approach than before, but the Lee Jae-myung government has managed this excellently." He assessed that "President Lee's White House visit last year was successful, and trade negotiations were also wrapped up well." He added, "Given this trajectory in U.S.-Korea relations, President Trump will ultimately move in a direction that values the alliance," and said "Korea can afford to be optimistic."
On North Korea policy, he emphasized the need to pay attention to the deepening North Korea-Russia ties. "North Korea is fighting Ukraine on the European battlefield, and it is not clearly known what and how much North Korea is receiving from Russia in return," he said with concern. He also noted that "this North Korea-Russia solidarity is reducing Pyongyang's incentive to pursue diplomacy with South Korea and the United States," and assessed that the prospect of a resumption of U.S.-North Korea talks remains low for the time being. "In the long run, resolving the Korean Peninsula issue through diplomatic negotiations with North Korea is inevitable, but for now there is no choice but to manage regional stability using available deterrence tools such as military strength and economic sanctions," he said.
Kritenbrink joined the U.S. State Department in 1994 and has served as Senior Director for Asian Affairs on the White House National Security Council and as Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, making him one of the foremost Asia specialists in Washington. Having dealt with Korean Peninsula issues including the North Korean nuclear program and sanctions on Pyongyang, he currently advises on geopolitical risks and business strategy in Asia at The Asia Group, a strategic advisory firm.