South Korea's past attempts to achieve North Korean denuclearization have failed, and recognizing a "two-state system on the Korean Peninsula" could serve as a starting point for realistic future denuclearization efforts, experts argued at a state-sponsored think tank forum. Additionally, providing security assets to North Korea—including recognition of nuclear-sharing arrangements between Pyongyang and China or Russia—was presented as a viable solution.
The Institute for National Security Strategy (INSS) held a forum on "Seeking Realistic Solutions for Korean Peninsula Denuclearization" at the Westin Hotel in Jung-gu, Seoul, on June 3. The discussion covered topics including the international political implications of North Korea's nuclear program and realistic approaches to the nuclear issue.
Jeon Bong-geun, visiting research fellow at the Sejong Institute, diagnosed the situation: "In the past, we adopted denuclearization strategies premised on North Korea's collapse or transformation, but North Korea currently possesses at least 50 nuclear weapons and appears to be adding more than 10 annually—this has been a complete failure."
He continued: "Given the Northeast Asian security environment where geopolitical competition continues between the U.S. and Soviet Union, and between the U.S. and China, the North Korean regime cannot collapse structurally. This explains why denuclearization strategies premised on North Korea's change or collapse could not succeed."
Jeon argued that the fundamental reason for North Korea's nuclear armament lies in the "unification competition" between the two Koreas. He proposed that realistically recognizing a "two-state system" on the Korean Peninsula could serve as a starting point for North Korean denuclearization.
"The two Koreas remain in a survival competition where one's existence means the other's death," he said. "A de facto two-state system on the Korean Peninsula is a necessary condition for achieving denuclearization."
However, Jeon noted: "We cannot accept the 'hostile two-state relationship' that North Korea currently advocates. Ultimately, a two-state relationship for 'peaceful coexistence' is needed. This was effectively demonstrated when the two Koreas simultaneously joined the United Nations in 1991."
Cho Sung-ryul, visiting professor at Kyungnam University, argued: "Realistically, to achieve North Korea's denuclearization, South Korea and the United States must provide a peace regime while also offering hard security assets to North Korea to induce it to abandon its nuclear assets."
Regarding the peace regime that Seoul and Washington could offer Pyongyang, Cho said: "First, the U.S. could recognize North Korea as an independent strategic state and separate it from China and Russia. If the role of U.S. forces in Korea is also shifted from deterring North Korea to stabilizing Northeast Asia, denuclearization compromise could become possible."
He added: "To this end, we could recognize the 'two sovereign states' system that North Korea advocates."
Cho also suggested inducing North Korean denuclearization by providing security assets through China and Russia: "Like the nuclear-sharing agreement between Russia and Belarus, we could consider using China and Russia to provide hard security alternatives to nuclear weapons for North Korea. If South Korea, the U.S., and Japan recognize this system while the U.S. simultaneously provides security guarantees such as a non-aggression treaty with North Korea, denuclearization could be induced."
The forum also shared assessments of the increasingly difficult international political environment for Korean Peninsula denuclearization, including recent signals from the United States appearing to tacitly accept North Korea's nuclear status.
Shin Sung-ho, dean of Seoul National University's Graduate School of International Studies, analyzed: "The Donald Trump administration's position is moving toward viewing the North Korean nuclear issue as unimportant and tolerating North Korea's nuclear weapons."
Shin cited as evidence that the U.S. did not mention North Korea's nuclear program or Korean Peninsula issues in last year's National Security Strategy and National Defense Strategy documents.
"As a result, observations are emerging that denuclearization is slipping away, as North Korea says it will not give up nuclear weapons and the U.S. no longer discusses the matter," he concluded.