China Expands Secret Nuclear Facilities, Outpaces U.S. in Submarine Production

The U.S. Department of Defense's "2025 China Military Power Report," the first published under the second Trump administration, contains analysis that has startled the world. China possessed approximately 600 nuclear warheads as of late 2024, and considering it has been stockpiling about 100 warheads annually since 2020, it is projected to hold around 1,000 by 2030.

China is also accelerating its naval buildup centered on aircraft carriers. The Pentagon assesses that Beijing aims to expand its current fleet of three carriers to six by 2035. The United States operates 11 aircraft carriers, making China's target a comparable scale. The Defense Department has been issuing annual reports evaluating Chinese military capabilities since 2020.

However, in the Indo-Pacific region alone, the U.S. can immediately deploy only three to four aircraft carriers. Analysts warn that if China initiates military provocations in the Taiwan Strait, East China Sea, South China Sea, or the eastern Pacific after 2035, timely response would be difficult. This has heightened concerns that maritime hegemony in the region could shift from the United States to China.

China's fourth aircraft carrier, currently under construction, is reportedly nuclear-powered. Calls are growing in U.S. political circles and think tanks to rapidly expand the carrier fleet to deter China's challenge to maritime dominance. This explains the mounting support for expanding to at least 15 carriers.

While the world watches China pursue 1,000 nuclear warheads and nuclear-powered carriers in its bid for military superpower status, an even more critical development deserves attention: evidence is emerging that Beijing is rapidly expanding secret nuclear facilities in mountainous regions.

The New York Times reported on February 15 that satellite imagery and visual analysis revealed China has expanded secret nuclear facilities throughout Sichuan Province in recent years. According to the report, new bunkers and barriers have been constructed at a nuclear facility complex in Zitong Valley, while the nearby Pingtong Valley is believed to produce core components for plutonium-based nuclear warheads.

At the Pingtong facility entrance, the phrase "不忘初心，牢記使命" (Never forget the original mission, keep the mission firmly in mind) is inscribed in red letters large enough to be visible from space. This is a political slogan President Xi Jinping has consistently emphasized. The NYT analyzed that changes at China's secret nuclear facilities align with Beijing's goal of becoming a global superpower, with nuclear weapons essential to achieving that objective.

Most alarming is that China has surpassed the United States in both the number and scale of nuclear submarines built and launched over the past five years. According to "Boom Times in Bohai Bay: China's Increase in Submarine Production," a recent report by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), China is estimated to have built and launched 10 nuclear-powered submarines between 2021 and 2025.

The United States produced only seven during the same period. China has even surpassed the U.S. in submarine size. The total full-load displacement of Chinese nuclear submarines built during this period was 79,000 tons, compared to just 55,000 tons for the United States. IISS noted this marks the first time China has overtaken the U.S. in five-year comparisons of nuclear submarine production volume and scale.

China produced five nuclear submarines from 2011 to 2015 and two from 2016 to 2020. During the same periods, the U.S. produced five and seven, respectively. IISS pointed out that China significantly boosted its submarine production capacity by expanding facilities and equipment at the Bohai Shipyard in Huludao, Liaoning Province, from 2019 to 2022, increasingly threatening U.S. naval superiority.

Most notably, China is accelerating construction of ballistic missile nuclear submarines. Based on satellite imagery analysis of the Bohai Shipyard and the Yulin Naval Base on Hainan Island, IISS confirmed that China launched its seventh and eighth Type 094 ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs) in 2024 and 2025, respectively. The Type 094 is China's largest nuclear submarine and carries JL-2A submarine-launched ballistic missiles with a range of 11,200 kilometers, reportedly capable of striking the U.S. mainland from Chinese coastal waters.

Additionally, China launched two Type 093B attack submarines annually in 2024 and 2025. IISS explained this demonstrates China achieved "1+2" production capacity before the United States. However, IISS assessed that Chinese nuclear submarines still lag behind U.S. and European submarines in performance.

Currently, overall submarine forces still favor the United States significantly over China. According to the IISS "Military Balance 2025" report, as of early 2024, China has 12 nuclear submarines including six SSBNs, plus 46 conventional submarines. The United States maintains 65 submarines, including 14 SSBNs, with no conventional diesel submarines.