Lee Jae-myung Government Faces Uphill Battle for Inter-Korean Summit

"We will mobilize all North Korea intelligence capabilities to ease inter-Korean military tensions and open a breakthrough for dialogue." (Early Lee Jae-myung government, June last year)

"Unfortunately, all channels for dialogue with North Korea have been severed, making even working-level contact or meetings extremely difficult." (Six months into the Lee Jae-myung government, December last year)

These are assessments on the possibility of inter-Korean dialogue, including a summit, made by a senior intelligence official six months apart since the Lee Jae-myung government's inauguration. The earlier statement expressed confidence in creating a breakthrough for dialogue with North Korea amid heightened Korean Peninsula tensions. However, six months later, the official expressed frustration at being unable to even attempt contact with North Korea.

President Lee stated at his first New Year press conference at Cheongwadae's State Guest House on January 21: "As a pacemaker, we will make every diplomatic effort to facilitate early U.S.-North Korea dialogue and create conditions for resuming inter-Korean dialogue." He added, "We will also restore the September 19 Inter-Korean Military Agreement to build political and military trust between the two Koreas." This demonstrated his strong commitment to an inter-Korean summit.

However, during the Yoon Suk-yeol government, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un advocated the "hostile two-state theory," pushing inter-Korean military tensions to their peak. Although President Lee proposed "restoring inter-Korean communication channels as a priority for resuming candid dialogue" at the National Unification Advisory Council inauguration ceremony last December, North Korea has remained silent.

Consequently, inter-Korean dialogue has been suspended for nearly eight years since the September 2018 Pyongyang Inter-Korean Summit during the Moon Jae-in government. President Lee himself acknowledged the difficulty, stating the need to "make constant efforts to find even a needle-hole opening," indicating that a meeting between the two Korean leaders at one table is currently impossible. Can the Lee government break through this impasse?

The possibility of an inter-Korean summit can be assessed from two perspectives: domestic and international political situations.

Domestically, while Cheongwadae strongly desires inter-Korean dialogue, the working-level organizations responsible for North Korea contact are completely ineffective. The National Intelligence Service, the core channel for inter-Korean dialogue, appointed Kim Ho-hong, former head of the North Korea Strategy Division (Grade 2), as Second Deputy Director for North Korea Affairs, concentrating all capabilities, but has failed to produce tangible results.

The NIS has three main North Korea-related organizations: a North Korea analysis bureau, a North Korea strategy bureau, and a North Korea operations bureau. The North Korea Strategy Division, under the strategy bureau, oversees dialogue and negotiations with North Korea. During the Moon Jae-in government, NIS Director Suh Hoon, a former North Korea Strategy Bureau (Bureau 8) head, traveled to Pyongyang and facilitated three inter-Korean summits in 2018 alone.

Another channel, inter-Korean military dialogue, falls under the Ministry of National Defense. During the Moon Jae-in government, the North Korea Policy Director under the Defense Policy Office played a crucial role in achieving the September 19 Inter-Korean Military Agreement. However, this position was abolished when the Yoon government created a "Defense Policy Director" position. The subordinate "North Korea Policy Division" was renamed "North Korea Strategy Division" and reassigned primarily to handle North Korea sanctions.

The current government reportedly pursued reviving the North Korea Policy Director position as a control tower for North Korea policy but put it on hold considering inter-Korean tensions. However, the North Korea Strategy Division was renamed North Korea Policy Division to align with the reconciliation approach, tasked with inter-Korean dialogue as its main responsibility. Nevertheless, when the Defense Ministry publicly proposed inter-Korean military talks to North Korea last November, Pyongyang again did not respond.

Internationally, President Donald Trump is expected to actively pursue a U.S.-North Korea summit. If U.S.-North Korea dialogue occurs, South Korea could serve as a "pacemaker," potentially becoming a crucial variable for breaking the inter-Korean dialogue impasse. However, the general assessment is that the possibility of an inter-Korean summit remains low as North Korea maintains its hostile two-state theory while focusing on strengthening cooperation with Russia and China.

The Korea National Diplomatic Academy analyzed: "With the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, North Korea is strengthening security cooperation with Russia and has secured economic benefits through expanded economic cooperation with China following the September North Korea-China summit." The academy added, "Therefore, North Korea is likely to assess that improving inter-Korean relations offers little immediate practical benefit, making the resumption of inter-Korean dialogue difficult."