Democrats Target Opposition Strongholds as Local Elections Loom 100 Days Away

South Korea's June 3 local elections are 100 days away. Observers say the vote will be a watershed moment determining political dominance beyond a simple reshuffling of local power. The political landscape shaped by the results will likely extend to the 2028 general elections, serving as a key variable in both parties' expansion strategies and the next presidential race.

The elections carry significant weight as the first nationwide vote in the second year of the Lee Jae-myung administration, which launched following last year's early presidential election. If the ruling party prevails, it will control local governments in addition to executive and legislative branches, accelerating major policy initiatives. A meaningful opposition showing would establish checks on the dominant ruling party's governance, potentially slowing policy implementation.

Ruling Party Targets 10 Metropolitan Seats After 2021 Sweep

The ruling Democratic Party of Korea is finalizing election strategies to defend its traditional Honam base while targeting 10 regions currently held by People Power Party metropolitan governors, including Seoul, Chungcheong, Gangwon, and PK (Busan, Ulsan, South Gyeongsang).

Democratic Party Secretary-General Cho Seung-rae said at a National Assembly press conference yesterday that PPP metropolitan governors elected in June 2022 in eight regions—Incheon, Daejeon, South Chungcheong, North Chungcheong, Sejong, Gangwon, South Gyeongsang, and Ulsan—are "Yoon Suk-yeol kids" who "should be ousted along with former President Yoon Suk-yeol."

Regarding Seoul and Busan, the key battlegrounds, Cho said, "There will be an evaluation and judgment on the incompetence shown over four years."

Within the ruling camp, the consensus is that "recapturing Seoul means a landslide victory." Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon, who has clashed with the government on real estate policy—the biggest political issue—is seeking a third term. A Seoul victory would confirm public support for core government policies. Key Democratic candidates including Seongdong District Mayor Jeong Won-oh and lawmakers Park Hong-keun, Seo Young-kyo, Park Ju-min, Jeon Hyun-hee, and Kim Young-bae are rallying supporters by criticizing Mayor Oh.

Intense behind-the-scenes maneuvering is underway in Busan and Gyeonggi Province, two other battlegrounds. Democratic lawmaker Jeon Jae-su, considered the frontrunner among ruling party candidates, is signaling a showdown with incumbent PPP Busan Mayor Park Hyung-joon. Though challenging territory for the ruling party, the government's "maritime capital" initiative, including the Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries relocation, could influence results. In Gyeonggi, incumbent Governor Kim Dong-yeon and lawmakers Choo Mi-ae, Kwon Chil-seung, and Han Jun-ho, along with former lawmaker Yang Ki-dae, are preparing campaigns. Lawmaker Kim Byung-joo withdrew from the governor's race, saying he would "serve as a foot soldier for the party's victory."

Opposition Struggles with Candidate Shortage, Internal Discord

The People Power Party faces a candidate shortage. In Seoul, only former Innovation Committee Chair Yoon Hee-sook has begun official campaign activities, while Mayor Oh—the most popular figure—has delayed his formal announcement amid conflict with party leadership over severing ties with former President Yoon. In Gyeonggi, no candidate has declared, with former lawmakers Yoo Seung-min, Won Yoo-chul, and Shim Jae-chul mentioned as potential candidates regardless of their intentions.

Crisis concerns are deepening inside and outside the PPP. Having won 12 of 17 metropolitan seats in 2022, the party must defend the capital region and PK even if conceding some areas. Following defeats in the 2024 general election and last year's presidential election, a complete loss in the local elections could shake the party's foundation.

The election results will likely reshape the presidential race. If Democratic Party Chairman Chung Chung-rae achieves a sweeping victory, he could recover leadership damaged after the failed party merger and establish himself as a presidential contender. PPP Chairman Jang Dong-hyuk, who sparked internal conflict by refusing demands to sever ties with former President Yoon, will face either momentum or accountability depending on election outcomes.

Political Heavyweights Converge for 'Mini General Election' By-Elections

National Assembly by-elections coinciding with the June 3 local elections are drawing attention. The entry of former party leaders and presidential candidates could elevate these races to "mini general election" status.

Four constituencies have confirmed by-elections: Incheon Gyeyang-eul, South Chungcheong Asan-eul, Gyeonggi Pyeongtaek-eul, and North Jeolla Gunsan-Gimje-Buan-gap. Incheon Gyeyang-eul was President Lee Jae-myung's former district, while South Chungcheong Asan-eul was previously held by Presidential Chief of Staff Kang Hoon-sik. Gyeonggi Pyeongtaek-eul and North Jeolla Gunsan-Gimje-Buan-gap became vacant after finalized court rulings stripping lawmakers of their seats.

More by-election constituencies are expected as incumbent lawmakers enter local races. Five Democratic incumbents have declared for the Seoul mayoral race, with additional by-elections likely from Busan (lawmaker Jeon Jae-su) and Incheon (lawmakers Kim Gyo-heung and Park Chan-dae) mayoral campaigns. Four PPP incumbents have expressed interest in the Daegu mayoral race. However, resignations after April 30 would push by-elections to next year.

Incheon Gyeyang-eul is considered the top battleground. Former Democratic Party leader Song Young-gil, who recently received an acquittal and applied for party reinstatement, served five terms representing the district. While Song's candidacy appears likely, Presidential Spokesperson Kim Nam-jun, a close aide to President Lee, is also considering a run. Party insiders expect internal coordination if additional by-election seats open from Incheon mayoral candidacies. The opposition is discussing potential runs by former PPP presidential candidate Kim Moon-soo and former Land Minister Won Hee-ryong.

Gyeonggi Pyeongtaek-eul is expected to see a clash of heavyweights. Speculation surrounds a potential candidacy by Kim Yong, former vice president of the Democratic Research Institute and close ally of President Lee. Rebuilding Korea Party leader Cho Kuk is reportedly weighing runs in either Pyeongtaek-eul or Gunsan-Gimje-Buan-gap. The PPP is discussing Supreme Council member Yang Hyang-ja, a former Samsung Electronics executive, and former lawmaker Yoo Eui-dong. Former Prime Minister Hwang Kyo-ahn has declared his candidacy.

South Chungcheong Asan-eul is expected to pit Presidential Senior Secretary for Public Communication Jeon Seong-hwan against PPP-affiliated Lee Yoon-seok, head of the Chungnam Future Strategy Research Institute. In Gunsan-Gimje-Buan-gap, ruling party figures including Saemangeum Development Agency head Kim Eui-kyeom and Jeonbuk Special Self-Governing Province Council Speaker Moon Seung-woo are expected to compete. Former PPP leader Han Dong-hoon's potential constituency is also drawing attention, with observers suggesting he would run if a Busan seat becomes vacant.