Mini General Election Looms as Up to 10 Seats Face By-Elections

By-elections to be held simultaneously with the June 3 local elections are expected to reach the scale of a "mini general election."

According to political circles on the 22nd, four constituencies have been confirmed for by-elections: Incheon Gyeyang-eul, South Chungcheong Asan-eul, Gyeonggi Pyeongtaek-eul, and North Jeolla Gunsan-Gimje-Buan-gap. Incheon Gyeyang-eul is the former constituency of President Lee Jae-myung, while South Chungcheong Asan-eul is the former constituency of Presidential Chief of Staff Kang Hoon-sik. Gyeonggi Pyeongtaek-eul and North Jeolla Gunsan-Gimje-Buan-gap became vacant following final court rulings that stripped lawmakers of their seats.

The number of by-election constituencies is expected to grow as incumbent lawmakers announce their candidacies. Five incumbent Democratic Party of Korea lawmakers have declared bids for Seoul mayor, and by-elections are also likely following announcements for Busan mayor (Rep. Jeon Jae-su) and Incheon mayor (Reps. Kim Gyo-heung and Park Chan-dae). Four incumbent lawmakers from the People Power Party have also expressed intentions to run for Daegu mayor. However, if lawmakers resign after April 30, by-elections in their constituencies will be postponed until next year.

Incheon Gyeyang-eul is considered the most fiercely contested battleground. This is where former Democratic Party leader Song Young-gil, who recently applied to rejoin the party following an acquittal, served five terms. While Song is widely expected to mount a challenge, Kim Nam-jun, presidential spokesperson and a close aide to President Lee, is also considering running there. Party insiders believe internal coordination will occur if additional by-election seats open up due to candidacies for Incheon mayor. On the opposition side, former People Power Party presidential candidate Kim Moon-soo and former Land, Infrastructure and Transport Minister Won Hee-ryong are mentioned as potential candidates.

A clash between heavyweight figures from both ruling and opposition camps is expected in Gyeonggi Pyeongtaek-eul. On the ruling party side, Kim Yong, former vice president of the Democratic Research Institute and a core aide to President Lee, is rumored to be considering a run. There are also reports that Cho Kuk, leader of the Rebuilding Korea Party, is weighing this constituency against Gunsan-Gimje-Buan-gap. The People Power Party mentions Supreme Council member Yang Hyang-ja, a former Samsung Electronics executive, and former lawmaker Yoo Eui-dong as potential candidates. Former Prime Minister Hwang Kyo-ahn has also declared his candidacy.

For South Chungcheong Asan-eul, observers predict a matchup between Jeon Seong-hwan, Senior Presidential Secretary for Public Communication and Integration, and Lee Yoon-seok, president of the Chungnam Future Strategy Research Institute affiliated with the People Power Party. In Gunsan-Gimje-Buan-gap, competition among ruling camp figures is expected, including Saemangeum Development Agency Administrator Kim Eui-kyeom and Jeonbuk Special Self-Governing Provincial Council Chairman Moon Seung-woo. The potential candidacy location of former People Power Party leader Han Dong-hoon is also drawing attention. Observers suggest Han may run if a seat opens up in Busan.