A series of New Year polls show the Democratic Party of Korea leading the People Power Party within the margin of error in the Seoul mayoral, Gyeonggi governor, and Busan mayoral races—the most contested battlegrounds in the June 3 local elections.
Some observers predict a repeat of the 2018 local elections, when the Democratic Party swept 14 of 17 metropolitan and provincial governor races.
In a hypothetical multi-candidate matchup for Seoul mayor conducted by News1-Embrain Public, Seongdong District Mayor Jung Won-oh received 24 percent support while incumbent Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon garnered 23 percent—a one percentage point gap within the margin of error.
A hypothetical two-way matchup by Dong-A Ilbo-Research & Research showed former Prime Minister Kim Min-seok at 33.0 percent versus Oh at 30.4 percent. Democratic Party lawmaker Park Joo-min polled at 31.5 percent against Oh's 30.2 percent, while Jung and Oh were tied at 30.4 percent and 30.9 percent respectively.
A Newsis-Ace Research two-way poll showed Jung at 40.9 percent and Oh at 40.4 percent. A JTBC-MetaVoice survey found Jung at 39 percent and Oh at 38 percent.
However, some polls showed Oh leading within the margin of error. A JoongAng Ilbo-KStat Research two-way poll had Oh at 37 percent and Jung at 34 percent. An MBC-Korea Research survey showed Oh at 36 percent and Jung at 34 percent.
The Democratic Party's advantage was more pronounced in the Gyeonggi governor and Busan mayoral races.
In a News1-Embrain Public multi-candidate matchup for Gyeonggi governor, incumbent Kim Dong-yeon and Democratic Party lawmaker Choo Mi-ae each received 15 percent support. A JoongAng Ilbo-KStat Research two-way poll showed Kim at 39 percent versus former People Power Party lawmaker Yoo Seung-min at 19 percent. Kim polled at 40 percent against Reform Party leader Lee Jun-seok at 18 percent.
For the Busan mayoral race, a News1-Embrain Public multi-candidate poll showed Democratic Party lawmaker Jeon Jae-soo at 18 percent, incumbent Busan Mayor Park Hyung-joon at 16 percent, and Rebuilding Korea Party leader Cho Kuk at 8 percent. A JoongAng Ilbo-KStat Research two-way poll had Jeon at 39 percent and Park at 30 percent. A Kookje Shinmun-Realmeter multi-candidate survey showed Jeon at 30.8 percent and Park at 19.5 percent—an 11.3 percentage point gap.
Former People Power Party Emergency Committee Chairman Kim Chong-in predicted the ruling party would struggle to win the local elections unless acting Chairman Jang Dong-hyuk changes the party's rightward course.
"Only five months remain until the election. What Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon and Busan Mayor Park Hyung-joon are demanding of Chairman Jang is a thorough apology for martial law and a gesture of accepting impeachment," Kim said in a CBS Radio interview Thursday. "Chairman Jang is heading in a completely different direction."
"The world is changing dramatically, but looking at Chairman Jang's remarks, everything is reverting to the past," Kim said. "In my view, there is nothing to expect from the local elections."
Concerns are mounting both inside and outside the party that the nightmare of the 2018 local elections could be repeated. In that election, held during the second year of the Moon Jae-in administration, the then-Liberty Korea Party won only in Daegu and North Gyeongsang Province, with its influence shrinking drastically to what was dubbed "TK Jaminryeon."
The News1-Embrain Public survey was conducted December 26-27 among 803 Seoul residents, 803 Gyeonggi residents, and 802 Busan residents aged 18 and older via telephone interviews. The margin of error is ±3.5 percentage points at a 95 percent confidence level. Response rates were 10.1 percent for Seoul, 11.4 percent for Gyeonggi, and 12.3 percent for Busan.
The Dong-A Ilbo-Research & Research survey was conducted December 26-28 among 802 Seoul residents aged 18 and older via telephone interviews, with a margin of error of ±3.5 percentage points at a 95 percent confidence level and a response rate of 8.7 percent.
The Newsis-Ace Research survey was conducted December 28-29 among 804 Seoul residents aged 18 and older via automated response system, with a margin of error of ±3.5 percentage points at a 95 percent confidence level and a response rate of 5.2 percent.
The JTBC-MetaVoice survey was conducted December 29-30 among 800 Seoul residents aged 18 and older via telephone interviews, with a margin of error of ±3.5 percentage points at a 95 percent confidence level and a response rate of 5.8 percent.
The MBC-Korea Research survey was conducted December 28-30 among 804 Seoul residents aged 18 and older via telephone interviews, with a margin of error of ±3.5 percentage points at a 95 percent confidence level and a response rate of 10.1 percent.
The JoongAng Ilbo-KStat Research survey was conducted December 28-30 among 800 Seoul residents, 802 Gyeonggi residents, and 801 Busan residents aged 18 and older via telephone interviews, with a margin of error of ±3.5 percentage points at a 95 percent confidence level. Response rates were 9.4 percent for Seoul and Gyeonggi, and 14.9 percent for Busan.
The Kookje Shinmun-Realmeter survey was conducted December 27-28 among 1,003 Busan residents aged 18 and older via automated response system, with a margin of error of ±3.1 percentage points at a 95 percent confidence level and a response rate of 6.7 percent.
Detailed information on the polls can be found on the National Election Survey Deliberation Committee website.
