The approval rating for the president's handling of state affairs is declining. It stood above 65% early in his term and remained over 60% around the one-year mark, but it has recently fallen to around 50%. The approval rating had been maintained at a high level for some time, driven by the president's distinctive communication politics, stable diplomatic relations, his commitment to stabilizing real estate, and a strong domestic stock market. However, for several reasons, it has entered an unexpectedly rapid decline.
The most serious cause is the shaken trust in real estate policy. Early in his term, the president communicated directly through social media and expressed his commitment to stabilizing real estate, building public trust. However, not only home sale prices but also jeonse (a Korean lease system requiring a large lump-sum deposit instead of monthly rent) and monthly rents have risen, deepening the sense of loss and frustration among ordinary citizens and young people. If he fails to present groundbreaking real estate policy going forward, he will not be able to avoid an early lame-duck period, as seen in the cases of past administrations. Restoring the president's approval rating will also not be easy.
Poor management of exchange-rate risk is another cause of the decline in approval. It could become a major setback in the second year of the president's term. The soaring won-dollar exchange rate has approached 1,597 won, the intraday high recorded on March 6, 2009, during the global financial crisis. Some forecast that if this trend continues, it will enter the 1,700 won range, the level seen during the 1997 foreign exchange crisis. The rise in the cost of importing energy and food resources due to the high exchange rate is directly reflected in domestic consumer prices. The high exchange rate is driving up prices and shrinking consumption, dealing a major blow to the economy of ordinary citizens.
The National Election Commission's mismanagement of the local elections, which stunned the public, is also an important cause of the decline in the president's approval rating. Although the National Election Commission is an independent constitutional body, the general public perception is that the president and the executive branch cannot be entirely free from responsibility for the poor management of the elections, the nation's largest event. The content of reforms to the National Election Commission's organizational structure and operating system, along with the establishment and implementation of measures to strengthen external oversight, will determine the president's approval rating going forward.
Ahead of the August 17 party convention, the conflict within the ruling bloc over party leadership has also had a negative impact on the president's approval rating. The factional conflict over party leadership, tied to the debate over responsibility for the June 3 local elections, is being viewed as a power struggle ahead of the 2028 general elections. In past administrations, a structure of conflict between the president and the ruling party leader has dealt a fatal blow to the president's governing momentum.
It must not be forgotten that the foundation of the president's high approval rating was the moderate and working-class segments. Over the past year, the president's move toward moderate integration was a fulfillment of the promise in his inaugural address to become a president for all who embraces and serves all citizens beyond ideology. To secure governing momentum in the second year of his term and restore high public support, the most important thing is to declare a strong commitment to stabilizing real estate and to prepare all-or-nothing measures. He must also focus on recovering the economy for ordinary citizens without being swept up in unnecessary party leadership conflicts or ideological disputes.
