Voters handed neither the ruling nor opposition party a clear victory or defeat in the June 3 local elections. The Democratic Party of Korea won 12 of 16 metropolitan mayor and governor races but failed to reclaim the Seoul mayoralty. The People Power Party narrowly held on to the mayorships of Seoul and Daegu and the governorships of North and South Gyeongsang, but lost the mayoral races in Busan and Ulsan and the governorships of North and South Chungcheong. In an interview with the Seoul Economic Daily on the 8th, Kang Won-taek, a professor in the Department of Political Science and International Relations at Seoul National University, assessed the election by saying, "Voters simultaneously issued warnings against the arrogance of the ruling bloc and the lethargy of the opposition," diagnosing it as "a message embodying the public's command to restore politics and reform both state affairs and the party." Kang, who heads the Center for National Future Strategy at Seoul National University, said of President Lee Jae-myung, now entering his second year in office, "President Lee, who at the start of his term promised to be a 'president for everyone,' has lately been making remarks that seem to divide 'them' and 'us'," and advised, "Since this election confirmed that the framing around clearing up the insurrection no longer has a major impact, he should focus on resolving social conflict through national unity rather than dividing the country into camps."
— How do you assess the public sentiment revealed through the June 3 local elections?
△ President Lee's approval rating is relatively high, and the opposition People Power Party has been unable to escape the shadow of former President Yoon Suk-yeol. Even so, the ruling party did not win in a landslide and lost the Seoul mayoral race and others. Even in other battleground areas the Democratic Party won, the margin over the opposition was not large. The People Power Party did not earn more votes than expected because people found it appealing. People who watched the ruling bloc's one-sided governance over the past year decided it could not be left unchecked any longer and cast votes to rein it in. Before celebrating its victory, the Democratic Party leadership should reflect on public sentiment.
— The People Power Party barely won in its stronghold of Daegu but lost in Busan.
△ The conservative camp is still mired in the past, dwelling on how things were under President Park Chung-hee and the like. It has failed to present any future vision or new figures that could give hope to people living in the present. That is why the People Power Party struggles in both its strongholds and the capital region. Only when it offers tangible policy alternatives and a vision to voters in their 20s, 30s and 40s—the "economic backbone generation" who grapple daily with housing shortages, transportation difficulties and high living costs—will the People Power Party be recognized as a party capable of governing.
— Former People Power Party leader Han Dong-hoon ran as an independent in the National Assembly by-election in Busan's Buk-gu A and won dramatically.
△ Han seems to be becoming a real politician. By personally fighting a difficult election, he must have properly experienced how to reach voters and what political language to use. It is significant that he threw himself into hostile territory and won. Han's victory could be an opportunity to revive the embers of conservatism. Still, it cannot mask the crisis facing conservatives. People Power Party candidate Park Min-shik came in not even second but a distant third by a wide margin in that district. Although the TK (Daegu-North Gyeongsang) and PK (Busan-South Gyeongsang) regions have been the conservative camp's base, People Power Party candidates lost both the Busan mayoral race and the Busan Buk-gu A by-election and barely won in Daegu. In this election, the People Power Party did not defend its strongholds—it reconfirmed the collapse of its political base.
— How do you assess Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon's dramatic come-from-behind win?
△ The ruling bloc's push to withdraw the prosecution of cases related to President Lee appears to have had a negative effect on Seoul voters. People probably felt the ruling party was overconfident. Even among people who had relatively favorable views of President Lee, some voters grew uncomfortable with the ruling bloc's arrogance. Amid this, instability in the capital region's housing market also weighed in as a negative factor. With mortgage lending currently blocked, both sellers and buyers are feeling the strain. Since housing is a concern for every Seoul resident, it worked as an issue unfavorable to the ruling party.
— An unprecedented shortage of ballot papers occurred in several places in this election.
△ This is a serious matter that could threaten the stability of representative democracy. It is not something the National Election Commission can settle with an apology. The system must be reformed forcefully. External audits of the NEC must be made possible. If a Board of Audit and Inspection audit of the NEC is difficult due to a Constitutional Court decision already handed down, then at least a separate, independent monitoring and oversight body should be created. After that, the NEC can simply commission an external audit of itself.
— You seem to see the need for political reform growing greater as a result of this election.
△ Our political structure has solidified into a confrontation between forces seeking to profit by stoking social conflict rather than through dialogue and compromise. The electoral system must be reformed to break the hostile two-party structure. Local elections must also change. They are elections to choose people to work for the region, yet voters are preoccupied with which party to vote for rather than who will actually serve the region well. They must change toward being faithful to local self-governance, without being swayed by central politics as they are now. If alternative parties rooted in their regions and differentiated from the existing major parties emerge, they could play such a role. It is also worth considering holding the elections for local government heads at different times by region, rather than all on a single day.
— A renewed debate on constitutional revision could be reignited in connection with political reform.
△ Whether to revise the constitution is a matter for the ruling and opposition parties to decide by reaching agreement through consultation. During the 1987 constitutional revision, the Democratic Justice Party held 146 of the National Assembly's 276 seats, a majority. By contrast, the opposition Reunification Democratic Party held 73 seats, about half the DJP's. Even so, the parties formed an "eight-member political conference" for constitutional revision with four members each and produced an agreement that included introducing direct presidential elections. The DJP did not try to push its will through unilaterally on the strength of its seat count. If the current ruling party held such an attitude, it would be fine to discuss constitutional revision, but what the Democratic Party has shown since taking power has been one-way traffic.
— Having received these election results, how should the Lee Jae-myung administration set its direction for state affairs going forward?
△ The most important thing is the restoration of politics. Even if the opposition is in disarray, President Lee must recognize it as a partner in governance and communicate with it frequently. The opposition must be given a justification to accept invitations. Care must be taken not to give the impression that it is merely a "let's meet and have a meal" gesture or an attempt to use the opposition as a prop.
— With the nomination of new prime minister candidate Han Seong-suk, the starting signal for a cabinet reshuffle has been fired.
△ It would be best to recruit talent broadly from all walks of life, without weighing rewards for political service or factional affiliation. It is not enough to change the people; they must be given proper roles. As it is now, when the president repeatedly throws out uncoordinated policies on social media and tries to micromanage everything, the prime minister and ministers become invisible. In such circumstances, even a reshuffle makes no difference the public can feel. Only when changes are made to the president's leadership style along with the reshuffle can it be effective.
— In forecasting the political landscape ahead, quite a few people are more worried about the party-presidential office relationship than about ruling-opposition relations.
△ In no previous administration has the party-presidential office relationship been this uncomfortable early in the term. Now, even when President Lee raises an agenda, there are times when the ruling party shows a difference in attitude, or the government even appears to be dragged along by the ruling party. Democratic Party leader Jung Chung-rae may have sought to differentiate himself with an eye on the next party leadership. Even during former President Lee Myung-bak's tenure, the "Sejong City revision bill" was pushed to turn Sejong City into a business city rather than an administrative capital, but it was voted down in the National Assembly amid opposition from the pro-Park faction within the ruling party at the time. Yet if President Lee now steps to the front, it could look like a clash with the party. Rather, the presidential office's political affairs function should be strengthened. In past administrations, there was a precedent of appointing senior party figures as ministers without portfolio to lend weight to the political affairs function.
— What will become of the positions of the ruling and opposition party leaders going forward?
△ Jung must take responsibility for these election results. He failed to retake the Seoul mayoralty and lost in several key strategic areas. Considering it was a first-year-in-office election favorable to the ruling party, it is by no means a good result. He must reflect on whether he lost in Seoul and elsewhere because he was overconfident, thinking the election was already won. The People Power Party did not perform well in this election either. It was an election that reconfirmed the collapse of conservatism. The People Power Party can survive only if it fundamentally reforms its character and line to the level of refounding the party. In that sense, it is right that, starting with leader Jang Dong-hyeok, the leadership take responsibility for the election results and step down.
— The 22nd National Assembly is entering its second half, but extreme partisan strife is still expected. [BODY]
△Through this election, voters demanded the restoration of politics. While wary of both the ruling party's unilateral dominance and the opposition's obstruction, they ordered that state affairs and people's livelihoods be managed through dialogue and compromise. Against this backdrop, if the ruling bloc presses for the withdrawal of indictments in cases related to President Lee in the latter half of the National Assembly and pushes a special counsel bill on related matters, public sentiment could deteriorate further. Nevertheless, if the ruling bloc repeats its one-sided behavior, the majority of citizens who hold critical views will keep their mouths shut, watch the ruling party's conduct, and then act through their votes as they did this time. The moment voters fall silent is precisely the moment the ruling party should fear most. The National Assembly should fear the silent majority of citizens and the quiet, rational moderate voters.
◇He is…
Born in Seoul in 1961, he graduated from Seoul National University with a degree in geography. He earned a master's degree in political science from the Seoul National University graduate school, completed his doctoral coursework, and then received a doctorate in political science from the London School of Economics (LSE). After serving as a visiting research fellow at Kyungnam University's Institute for Far Eastern Studies and as a professor in the Department of Political Science and Diplomacy at Soongsil University, he currently serves as a professor in the Department of Political Science and International Relations at Seoul National University and as director of its Institute for Future Strategy. He served as president of the Korean Political Science Association and the Korean Association of Party Studies. He has also served as an advisory member at major institutions including the National Assembly Research Service, the Constitutional Court, the National Court Administration of the Supreme Court, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Ministry of National Defense, and the National Election Commission.
