The war between the United States and Iran is increasingly becoming a "war with no winner" as time passes. U.S. President Donald Trump declared victory early on, but the political and diplomatic support that should follow a victorious nation is nowhere to be seen. In seven polls conducted this month by American media outlets and universities, Trump's approval ratings all remained below 40 percent. Allies continue to keep their distance despite Washington's requests. At a video conference held on the 17th (local time), leaders of 40 countries excluding the United States reaffirmed the existing principle that multinational military deployment in the Strait of Hormuz would only come after the war ends, and even then limited to defensive missions.
The Trump administration's vision for restructuring the Middle East order, the so-called Abraham Accords, is also wavering. Israel is obsessed with annihilating Hezbollah, and the United States is failing to rein it in. Or perhaps has no intention of doing so. Middle Eastern countries that had been pursuing normalization of relations with Israel are watching this with unease.
Then is Iran the winner? While the country has not been sent back to the "Stone Age" as Trump threatened, Iran lost core leadership figures including its Supreme Leader and suffered massive blows to its military power. Attacks on energy facilities in neighboring countries have further narrowed Iran's standing within the Middle East. The Iranian military, which reportedly gained influence after the war, lost public support long ago. That is why Iran is hard to call a victor.
Meanwhile, only the victims grow in number. Some assess China as a beneficiary of the war, but its energy situation is only slightly better than that of other countries. China's export growth rate in March was 2.5 percent, sliding sharply from 22 percent in January and February. The situation differs from that of the United States, which enjoyed a special boom in munitions exports during the World Wars. James Palmer, deputy editor of Foreign Policy, pointed out that "the Iran war is a scenario where both the U.S. and China lose." Not to mention countries like South Korea, which face significant economic damage from blocked energy imports due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
This is the current state of the U.S. "Midnight Hammer" operation. Not only is victory or defeat unclear, but even the direction of the war is difficult to predict. Both combat and negotiations are in deadlock. Foreign media reports that both the United States and Iran are internally divided between war hawks and negotiation advocates give a glimpse of their confusion. That is why voices calling for an end to the war are growing louder.
Although the war has no clear winner, no clear loser, and even no clear future plan, one thing is certain. The anger of Trump, who has tasted frustration in the Middle East, could turn toward allies. Signs of cracks are already appearing within the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). South Korea, already burdened with major issues such as the transfer of wartime operational control, tariff matters, and investment in the United States, now faces an additional significant variable. Trump's unpredictable, rugby-ball-like words and actions are familiar, but no one has yet seen how a rugby ball fueled by anger will bounce. The uncertainty heightened by this war is approaching us.
