The government's official forecast shows that annual electricity consumption in 2040, 14 years from now, will increase by up to 26% from last year. At a public debate on Tuesday, the General Committee for the 12th Basic Plan for Long-term Electricity Supply and Demand projected that annual power demand would reach 657.6 to 694.1 terawatt-hours (TWh) in 2040, up from 549.4 TWh last year. This is 11.1% higher than the 624.5 TWh forecast for 2038 estimated under the 11th basic plan. The figure reflects the explosive growth in power demand from advanced industries such as semiconductors and artificial intelligence (AI). Peak power demand during the year, which stood at around 100 gigawatts (GW) last year, is expected to reach a maximum of 138.2 GW by 2040, a 1.4-fold increase. The 11th basic plan had projected peak demand of 129.3 GW in 2038.
Power demand is surging amid the construction of AI data centers and semiconductor clusters, as well as the push for electrification — all directly tied to future national competitiveness. Against this backdrop, the 12th basic plan carries enormous weight, as it must support the competitiveness of advanced industries through uninterrupted power supply and address the energy security vulnerabilities exposed by the Middle East war. Establishing a sustainable and stable energy system requires a diversified energy mix strategy that does not lean toward any particular source. In this regard, civic groups' argument that liquefied natural gas (LNG) should be excluded from AI data center power sources in favor of renewable energy makes no sense. Excessive reliance on renewable energy, with its fluctuating output, cannot meet the explosive demand for electricity.
If the government is to achieve both future growth and carbon neutrality, it must actively expand nuclear power, a stable and inexpensive source of electricity. Earlier this year, the Lee Jae-myung administration confirmed the construction of two large nuclear reactors and one small modular reactor (SMR), distancing itself from the "nuclear phase-out" stance of past progressive governments. The government's move to unify nuclear export channels through Korea Electric Power Corp. (KEPCO) can also be seen as a measure to streamline nuclear exports. However, its position on expanding domestic nuclear power remains unclear. If the government intends to foster nuclear power as a future growth engine while building a stable energy system, it should demonstrate its commitment to constructing additional domestic nuclear plants through the 12th basic plan.
