Diplomats love ambiguity. But as President Donald Trump's envoys work to craft a permanent ceasefire agreement in the Iran war, one core issue must be crystal clear: safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz. So far, that remains a shimmering mirage.
Recently, President Trump issued an ultimatum that "entire civilization would disappear" if Iran did not capitulate and open the strait. Then he pivoted to celebrating an unstable ceasefire, declaring "this could be a golden age for the Middle East" and predicting "big money" to be made in Iran. Meanwhile, Iranian media reported the strait was "completely blocked," and Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf suggested Tehran might walk away from negotiations if Israel did not halt its attacks on Lebanon. Perhaps it is inevitable that a war launched without a clear strategy for victory would conclude without a formula for peace.
The situation reached this point because of the ambiguity diplomats relish. President Trump announced that Iran's 10-point proposal was "a negotiable basis," while Iran said it was "reviewing" the U.S. 15-point peace plan. The terms clearly differ, yet the war-weary president seems to have forgotten his demand for "unconditional surrender" issued on the 6th.
Diplomatic uncertainty surrounding the Iran war runs deep. According to officials familiar with the negotiations, Pakistan, backed by China, has been leading an expanding global coalition and drafting a framework for agreement. Communication between Washington and Tehran has been chaotic, partly due to wartime confusion within Iran. Officials said message exchanges that once took two to three hours now require 24 to 36 hours.
Pakistan emerged as a mediator because of its good relations with most key parties—not only the United States and Iran but also China, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. Pakistan reportedly views diplomacy less as "a tango for two" and more as "a masquerade ball." Pakistani diplomats are skilled in the art of ambiguity to a sometimes maddening degree. A diplomatic milestone came late last month when China and Pakistan unveiled an initiative "to restore peace and stability in the Gulf region." Officials said it was discussed during a phone call between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping last month and laid out a simple peace agenda: cessation of hostilities, commencement of peace talks, and most importantly, maritime safety.
A similar call for collective action to reopen the Strait of Hormuz came from 46 former ministers organized by the International Crisis Group (ICG). They modeled their proposal on the "Black Sea Initiative" that restored shipping in the Black Sea in 2022 during the Russia-Ukraine war. While this diplomacy progressed with tacit White House approval, President Trump actually escalated his threats against Iran, even launching a profanity-laden tirade on Easter.
President Trump appeared to be narrating his own war movie. In a recent social media post, after threatening to destroy Persian civilization, he wrote: "Who knows? We will find out tonight. One of the most important moments in the long and complicated history of the world."
This erratic belligerence has eroded support and trust in President Trump among Congress and European allies. Europe has notably stayed uninvolved in collective action to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. However, according to one official, some countries viewed the president's bellicosity as "show business."
Another challenge for President Trump in finding an exit is that U.S. and Israeli end goals may diverge. The United States wanted to preserve Iran's economic infrastructure and did not want to arm ethnic minority rebels who could fracture the country. Some Israeli strategists, however, preferred an alternative approach that encouraged separatist movements among Kurds, Baluchis, Azerbaijanis, and Khuzestan Arabs. Israel also wants to continue striking Hezbollah targets in Lebanon even as U.S. concerns grow.
Peace talks are expected to begin in Pakistan soon. Participants and the agenda can only be guessed at. What matters is the future status of the Strait of Hormuz—open at the war's start but now effectively closed. This is the greatest uncertainty of all.
