Now two months into the war the United States and Israel are waging against Iran, it is worth taking stock of where things stand. Before the war began in late February, here was the situation with Iran and its surroundings.
Last June, Iran's nuclear enrichment facilities were, in President Donald Trump's words, thoroughly destroyed. This was the result of a 12-day air campaign by U.S. and Israeli air forces employing stealth bombers and 30,000-pound bunker buster bombs. The head of the Israel Defense Forces agreed with Trump's assessment. "We have set back Iran's nuclear program by years, and the same goes for its missile program," he said. Iran's military capabilities had already been significantly degraded by separate Israeli strikes in 2024. Those strikes eliminated key leaders of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), destroyed air defense systems and hit ballistic missile facilities. Israel also heavily bombed Hezbollah, Iran's most lethal militia ally, eliminating multiple layers of its leadership and effectively neutralizing its military capacity.
In other words, Iran was in an extremely vulnerable military position. On top of that, its economy was in shambles due to intensified sanctions and a corrupt system. It was difficult to argue that Iran posed a threat to the United States. Trump himself effectively acknowledged this, saying, "America doesn't need to be there. But we are there to help our allies." It is also worth noting that no consultation on the war took place with European or Asian allies, and many countries expressed opposition.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu persuaded Trump with the logic that the goal was not to counter an immediate threat from Iran but to seize the opportunity presented by its unprecedented weakness to strike hard and pursue regime change. Otherwise, why would Trump have concluded his announcement of the war's launch by urging the Iranian people to rise up and overthrow the regime?
Looking at the situation so far, apart from inflicting massive damage on Iran and further neutralizing its already weakened military, almost none of the desired outcomes have been achieved. The Iranian regime has not collapsed. Key leadership positions have been filled by harder-line figures. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was known to have prohibited the development of nuclear weapons, has died, and his son, known to hold even more hard-line views, has replaced him. Overall, the IRGC, which has always taken a more hawkish line, is rising to the forefront — a natural development in wartime.
The Strait of Hormuz, which had remained freely open despite numerous threats over 47 years of U.S.-Iran tensions, has now been blocked by the new leadership. Trump argues that a few more rounds of strikes will naturally compel Iran to reopen the strait to export its own oil. But this misreads the situation. The strait has not been fully closed — it remains open for Iranian oil, which flows freely particularly to China. As a result, Iran's daily oil revenue has roughly doubled compared with pre-war levels. On top of that, if Iran charges approximately $2 million in transit fees per passing tanker, it could generate hundreds of millions of dollars in additional monthly revenue — more than enough to rebuild its military.
America's Gulf allies now find themselves in a far more unstable and tense environment than before the war. Their economic model is built on peace, stability and economic integration. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman sought to ease geopolitical tensions by improving relations with Iran in 2023, aiming to advance his ambitious modernization plans. But all that progress is now under threat along with disrupted oil exports, and the Middle East has shifted from a region with the potential to become an oasis of stability to a cauldron of conflict.
The clear winner is Russia. Rising oil prices and eased U.S. sanctions deliver billions of dollars in additional revenue each month. Ukraine finds itself at a disadvantage as weapons it needs are diverted to the Middle East. Europe faces growing burdens as energy costs surge and Trump demands NATO participation in his war, hinting at withdrawal from the alliance if allies refuse. China benefits as the United States sinks deeper into Middle Eastern conflict, weakening its focus on Asia. At the same time, thanks to massive green technology investments, China avoids much of the war's costs and is increasingly seen on the world stage as a more responsible and less destructive superpower.
Of course, circumstances can change. War is unpredictable. But looking at the results so far, has there ever been a U.S. military action that delivered so little while costing so much?