U.S. President Donald Trump has signaled a withdrawal of American forces from the Strait of Hormuz without resolving the waterway's security issues, raising fears of a devastating blow to Korea's economy, which is heavily dependent on the route for energy shipments. Trump on Tuesday outlined his exit strategy, saying, "Once they (Iran) can no longer have nuclear weapons, we will leave." He said the end of the Iran war would come "very soon," pinning it to "within two to three weeks."
An end to the Iran war, which has weighed heavily on Korea's economy, is welcome news. The problem, however, is that if freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz — the "choke point" that holds Korea's economic lifeline — is not guaranteed, disruptions to energy supply and demand could become prolonged. It cannot be ruled out that Trump may present a unilateral plan to end the war in his address to the nation on Wednesday without offering a concrete solution for the Strait of Hormuz, which has cast a dark cloud over the global economy.
For now, the possibility of a "war's end without resolving Hormuz" appears quite high. Trump raised his voice, saying, "We have nothing to do with that (the Strait of Hormuz)," and "If France and other countries want oil and gas, they can go to the Strait of Hormuz themselves." Since the top priority for ending the war is the denuclearization of Iran, he is effectively telling countries that rely heavily on the waterway to solve the Hormuz issue on their own. Adding insult to injury, Iran's parliament has approved a plan to impose tolls on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. For Korea, which imports 70% of its crude oil and 20% of its liquefied natural gas (LNG) through the strait, this is an urgent crisis that demands immediate attention.
What is needed most now is a cool-headed yet agile response from the government. It must assume the worst-case scenario for the Strait of Hormuz and craft detailed contingency plans for each stage. Energy and raw material supply chains with Global South nations in Southeast Asia, Africa and South America must also be strengthened. It is highly significant that President Lee Jae-myung held a summit with Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto on the same day and reinforced bilateral energy cooperation in areas including LNG and coal. Korea must also redouble efforts to expand the scope and number of partner countries in its energy supply chains by leveraging official development assistance (ODA) and economic cooperation programs. To minimize the shock from the "energy crevasse" exposed by the Middle East crisis, there is no reason to delay a shift toward an energy mix that expands the use of nuclear power.