The Worst 'Hormuz Dilemma': Korea Must Secure Both Alliance and Energy

South Korea faces a diplomatic conundrum: strengthening the Korea-U.S. alliance while simultaneously securing crude oil shipping routes through negotiations with Iran. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on the 22nd, regarding the temporary lifting of sanctions on Iranian crude stranded in the Strait of Hormuz, that "the oil will be sold to Asian partner countries including South Korea and Japan." The move is intended to redirect Iranian oil from China to Asian allies, easing upward pressure on global oil prices, as growing domestic opposition to war fueled by rising consumer prices has become a concern. Iran, for its part, is leveraging the Strait of Hormuz — a weak link for the United States — to drive a wedge between Washington and its allies. Iran has stated that "ships that are not our enemies can pass through the strait," and is in discussions with Japan following similar talks with China and India.

U.S. President Donald Trump said on the 23rd that "the two countries have had productive dialogue over the past two days" and that he had "ordered a five-day suspension of all military strikes on Iran's power plants and energy facilities." This marked a step back from his ultimatum issued two days earlier threatening to devastate Iran's power plants if Tehran did not open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours. South Korea's financial markets, which had shown signs of panic with the KOSPI index plunging more than 6%, were able to catch their breath. However, it is too early to be optimistic about the outcome, given the vast gap between the two countries' positions on ceasefire conditions and the erratic nature of President Trump's messaging. South Korea could find itself caught in a "Hormuz Dilemma" at any moment — a complex entanglement of the Korea-U.S. alliance and energy security.

Disruption to passage through the Strait of Hormuz would deal a massive blow to South Korea's energy security and economy. However, troop deployment requires caution given strong public opposition and the reluctance of other countries. Even if South Korea becomes involved in the Iran situation, it would be advisable to do so within the framework of international law and multilateral cooperation. With 22 countries reportedly discussing the opening of the Strait of Hormuz under NATO leadership, South Korea should explore diverse channels of communication and coordination. Japan's approach is worth studying — Tokyo avoided U.S. demands for military deployment to the Hormuz Strait, instead substantially increasing investment in the United States while also engaging in negotiations with Iran. Now more than ever, South Korea needs sophisticated diplomacy that prioritizes the maximization of national interest and safeguards both the Korea-U.S. alliance and energy security.