The global pharmaceutical industry's obesity war has entered its second round. If round one was about competing for the "miracle injection," round two is a "price war." As patents for semaglutide—the key ingredient in Novo Nordisk's obesity treatment Wegovy—expire sequentially in China, India, Brazil, Turkey, and Canada, cracks are beginning to appear in drug prices that once commanded whatever the seller asked. Semaglutide is a GLP-1 class drug that lowers blood sugar and suppresses appetite. After receiving FDA approval in 2021, it swept the world as the "weight-loss injection."
The generic drug market is buzzing with semaglutide's patent expiration. China and India alone have over 800 million obese or overweight adults and 360 million diabetes patients. In India, some 40 companies are preparing to launch products, and production competition has begun in Brazil and China as well. Some forecasts suggest monthly drug costs exceeding $300 could fall to around $15. When prices collapse, myths crumble too. Novo Nordisk's stock has been volatile ahead of patent expiration, and competitor Eli Lilly is also on edge. In China, Wegovy's price was cut in half, while Eli Lilly's Mounjaro was slashed by 80%.
The battlefield is shifting again—from injections to pills. Novo Nordisk's oral Wegovy recorded over 300,000 prescriptions in the U.S. within two months of launch. Eli Lilly is also preparing to counter with its oral treatment orforglipron. The race continues toward drugs that are cheaper, more convenient, and have fewer side effects. Korean pharmaceutical companies, entering the fray late, are positioning themselves around "quality weight loss"—not just reducing weight but preserving muscle and minimizing side effects.
It has long been said that biotech is the next growth engine after semiconductors. But markets move on speed, not words. The moment regulation becomes a barrier, companies cross borders. The reality of stem cell therapies blocked domestically but approved in Japan illustrates this point. What is needed more than subsidies is clearing the path. As long as outdated regulations remain, opportunities will always belong to other countries.