Hormuz Strait Crisis Exposes Korea's Vulnerabilities

The situation surrounding the Strait of Hormuz remains unpredictable. We are living in an era of self-reliance where war has become the default. Watching the conflict between the United States and Iran brings Korea's own position into sharp focus.

The Strait of Hormuz and the Taiwan Strait are currently regarded as the world's two most dangerous flashpoints. Both are vital arteries of the global economy—Hormuz for oil, Taiwan for semiconductors. One is already engulfed in conflict; the other faces an elevated risk of becoming so.

What concerns me most is how this war intersects with major political events across nations. The U.S. holds midterm elections in November. Korea has local elections in June. China will confirm President Xi Jinping's fourth term at the 21st Party Congress next fall. Politicians desperate for votes tend toward short-term thinking. They risk being swept away by a tsunami while picking up one more shellfish on the beach. We must recognize that this year and next represent an extraordinarily precarious period—economically, geopolitically, and historically.

America's leading strategists have long warned about implications for the Taiwan Strait. Hal Brands of Johns Hopkins University noted that "U.S. resources poured into the Middle East are reducing military and political bandwidth to contain China." Elbridge Colby, former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense, called getting bogged down in the Middle East again "strategic suicide." Despite becoming the world's largest energy producer through the shale revolution, President Donald Trump now finds himself exhausted fighting the wolf (Iran) while the real tiger (China) waits ahead.

In short, China may become more aggressive in testing Taiwan. From Beijing's perspective, the U.S.-Iran war serves as both a guideline and a window of opportunity for invading Taiwan. Xi's proposed GDP growth target of 4.5-5% signals economic distress—the lowest since 1991, following the Tiananmen Square incident. China has effectively acknowledged the end of its high-growth era.

The danger is that Xi's calculations become more complex and risky as economic momentum fades. With America mired in the Iran conflict, now may be China's optimal moment to test how far Washington can stretch. Western intelligence agencies have consistently identified 2027—the final year of Xi's third term—as the most likely window for a Taiwan invasion.

Consider Korea's situation. The war's fallout has already created a triple burden of energy costs, inflation, and security concerns. Instability in the Strait of Hormuz does more than raise oil prices. It drives up raw material costs and erodes manufacturing competitiveness. Debates over drone capabilities and potential redeployment of U.S. Forces Korea assets could transform security concerns into real threats. Yet public discourse remains fixated on whether stock prices will rise or fall.

The government's efforts to redirect capital from real estate to equities were largely designed to suppress housing prices. But excessive liquidity has driven stock markets up too quickly, exposing the economy's extreme vulnerability to external shocks like war. With exchange rates surging, we must deflate speculative bubbles before the volatile stock market triggers a compound crisis. Now is the time to listen to the shifting plates of global order, not just stock charts.

Above all, we must not be seduced by illusions of peace. This war has confirmed drones as the most cost-effective strategic weapons. North Korea is studying and replicating drone technology through the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Korea cannot afford to neglect drones—now the core of asymmetric warfare—due to political controversy.

Alliances are precious, but without the capacity for self-defense, they are mere mirages. The overseas deployment of Patriot missiles immediately becomes our vulnerability. A romanticized view of security itself can become a fatal liability that pushes the nation toward the cliff's edge.